格林期货早盘提示：钢材-20260120

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials sector (steel) is "oscillating" [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the national economy withstood pressure, made progress towards new and high - quality development, and successfully completed the main goals of the "14th Five - Year Plan". The GDP was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] - From January to December 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease; pig iron production was 836.04 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year decrease; steel production was 1.44612 billion tons, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [1] - In 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% compared to the previous year [1] - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% year - on - year decrease. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a 10.0% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease. The completed area was 603.48 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease. Among them, the completed residential area was 428.3 million square meters, a 20.2% decrease [1] - The Baotou Steel incident did not cause the market to strengthen. In 2025, crude steel production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, falling below 1 billion tons, and the supply and demand of steel both decreased. In the short and medium term, steel production and inventory both decreased. Among them, rebar production and inventory decreased slightly, hot - rolled coil production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The apparent demand increased month - on - month. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Condition - On Monday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and they also closed down at night [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term operation is recommended. The support level for the main rebar contract is 3050, and the pressure level is 3200 [1]