格林期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, crude oil is oscillating. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has decreased, Sinopec has raised the sales price, and the downstream demand side has seen an increase in operating rates. Driven by the export of styrene, styrene prices have risen. In the short term, the price of pure benzene will be oscillating strongly, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction price of the US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - On Monday, the price of the main - contract futures BZ2603 rose 32 yuan to 5779 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5645 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 115), and the spot price in Shandong was 5557 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 127). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 1432 to 22,100, and the number of short positions decreased by 1749 to 27,400 [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons compared to the previous inventory of 324,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.33%. Compared with the inventory of 143,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 154,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 107.69%. From January 12th to January 18th, the incompletely - counted arrival volume was 0 tons, and the pick - up volume was about 27,000 tons [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the operating rate of phenol was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the operating rate of aniline was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam factories have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there is an expected decrease in the monthly demand for pure benzene from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam project has been put into production [2] - Price Adjustment: Sinopec's chemical sales raised the listed price of pure benzene by 100 yuan/ton today. The East China, North China, South China, and Central China branches' Yangtze River - related resources are all priced at 5600 yuan/ton, effective from January 19th [2] - Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical situations in Iran and other regions have eased, the potential supply risk has weakened, and international oil prices have fallen. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract was at 63.94, down 0.19 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/ton, and fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/ton in the night session [2] Market Logic - The high uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation causes crude oil to oscillate. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has decreased, Sinopec has raised the sales price, and the downstream demand side has seen an increase in operating rates. Driven by the export of styrene, styrene prices have risen. In the short term, the price of pure benzene will be oscillating strongly, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction price of the US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously [2]