国泰君安期货所长早读-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Outlook: Aluminum, cotton [39][189] - Negative Outlook: PX, PTA, rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, soda ash, PVC, sugar, live pigs [84][86][94][102][159][165] - Neutral Outlook: Zinc, lead, tin, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, steam coal, logs, MEG, synthetic rubber, methanol, urea, styrene, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, pure benzene, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, eggs, peanuts [29][31][36][44][50][53][56][57][62][67][71][77][84][92][115][119][120][130][137][155][157][165][172][175][178][193][201] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global Market: Geopolitical conflicts led by Trump have increased short - term volatility in overseas markets, with the EU considering counter - measures. Meanwhile, China's GDP data has stabilized global confidence in China, and the RMB has strengthened. Pre - holiday domestic stability and overseas volatility intensification are normal, and investors should pay attention to the uncertainty risks caused by irrational fluctuations under the linkage of various markets [8]. - Commodity Markets - Caustic Soda: High inventory and weak demand lead to downward price pressure in the near term, but long - term contracts may face cost increases and supply cuts [11][100]. - Natural Rubber: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and domestic inventory accumulation continues, with short - term market trends remaining weak [12]. - Propylene: Spot driving force is weakening, and the market is mainly affected by cost and downstream factors [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Geopolitical conflicts have increased risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the prices of gold and silver [8]. - Platinum and Palladium: They are in a range - bound pattern [43][44]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: LME spot prices are strengthening, and the price is firm. Supply - side projects and geopolitical factors have an impact [24]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound pattern [27]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventory supports the price [30]. - Tin: It is in a range - bound pattern [33]. - Aluminum: It shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, while alumina continues to decline [38]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Indonesian policies cause fluctuations, and nickel prices have a wide - range oscillatory pattern [46]. 3.1.3 Other Metals - Lithium Carbonate: Downstream purchases have cooled, and the price is in a high - level oscillatory pattern [51]. - Industrial Silicon: Upstream production cuts have led to a rebound in the market [54]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy - Coal: The market sentiment for steam coal is weak, and the price is in a short - term weak adjustment [72]. - LPG: The downward driving force is gradually being realized [127]. - Fuel Oil: It has a narrow - range oscillatory pattern, and short - term fluctuations are narrowing [137]. 3.2.2 Chemicals - PX, PTA, and MEG: PX has a weak cost and a short - term oscillatory pattern; PTA focuses on narrowing processing fees; MEG has limited downward space [78]. - Rubber: It is in a weak oscillatory pattern [86]. - Synthetic Rubber: It has a short - term weak operation [90]. - LLDPE and PP: LLDPE has increased standard product production and weakening spot trading; PP has a strong cost support but weak demand [93][95]. - Caustic Soda: It is under pressure in the short term [98]. - Paper Pulp: It is in a weak oscillatory pattern [103]. - Glass: The raw sheet price is stable [108]. - Methanol: It is in an oscillatory operation [111]. - Urea: It is in an oscillatory consolidation [116]. - Styrene: It has a short - term oscillatory pattern [120]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change [122]. - PVC: It has a weak oscillatory pattern [134]. 3.3 Agricultural Products 3.3.1 Grains - Corn: The price has corrected [176]. 3.3.2 Oils and Fats - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil has limited short - term negatives, and soybean oil has limited rebound height [167]. 3.3.3 Others - Sugar: It is in a low - level consolidation [179]. - Cotton: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment [185]. - Eggs: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [192]. - Live Pigs: The spot price has weakened, and the peak - season expectation has decreased [195]. - Peanuts: It is in an oscillatory operation [199]. 3.4 Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is in a temporary oscillatory pattern. Factors such as capacity, geopolitics, and demand affect the market [139].