国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Fluctuations in tariff expectations [2]. - Copper: LME spot prices strengthen, and the price remains firm [2]. - Zinc: Range - bound trading [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2]. - Tin: Range - bound trading [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias; Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Box - shaped oscillation; Palladium: Following the range - bound trading [2]. - Nickel: Repeated statements from Indonesia disrupt sentiment, and nickel prices fluctuate widely; Stainless steel: The futures price is anchored to the contradictions at the ore end, and the rise of ferronickel supports the price center [2]. Summary by Related Categories Gold and Silver 1. Price and Trading Volume - Gold prices showed a slight decline during the day and a small increase at night. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,035.20 with a daily decline of 0.52% and a night - session closing price of 1035.98 with a 0.04% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - Silver prices also declined during the day and rose at night. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 22713 with a daily decline of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 23089.00 with a 1.40% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1, while the holdings of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 180. Gold and silver inventories showed different trends, with Comex gold inventories decreasing by 80,956 ounces and Shanghai silver inventories increasing by 9703 kilograms [4]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Gold and silver spreads and exchange rates changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 remained unchanged, and the US dollar index rose by 0.28% [4]. Copper 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,180 with a daily increase of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 101680 with a 0.49% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased, while the open interest of the London copper 3M electronic trading decreased slightly [8]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai copper inventories decreased by 7,762 tons, and London copper inventories increased by 3,850 tons. The LME copper premium widened, and the spot - to - futures spread and other spreads also changed [8]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic report shows that high - tech manufacturing leads, and GDP growth reaches the target. Trump's remarks on Greenland and related tariff threats, as well as Chile's Codelco's plan to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine [8][10]. Zinc 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24450 with a daily decline of 1.21%, and the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic trading was 3207.5 with a 3.20% decline. Trading volume decreased significantly, and open interest showed different trends [11]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc increased, the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased, and zinc inventories showed different trends, with Shanghai zinc inventories increasing by 224 tons and London zinc inventories decreasing by 1475 tons [11]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic achievements and the EU's plan to impose tariffs on US goods in response to Trump's tariff threats on European countries [12]. Lead 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17185 with a daily decline of 1.66%, and the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic trading was 2037.5 with a 2.81% decline. Trading volume and open interest decreased [15]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead remained unchanged, and overseas lead inventories decreased by 2850 tons, which supported prices [15]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic data and Trump's remarks on Greenland and tariff threats [16]. Tin 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 389,500 with a daily decline of 3.88% and a night - session closing price of 397,040 with a 2.58% increase. The trading volume and open interest decreased [19]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 141 tons, and London tin inventories increased by 505 tons. The LME tin premium increased, and the spot - to - futures spread also changed [19]. 3. News - Germany restarts electric vehicle purchase subsidies, the EU holds an emergency summit to address Trump's "island - seizure" tariffs, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate takes measures to maintain economic and financial security [19][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 1. Price and Trading Volume - Aluminum prices oscillated with a bullish bias. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24090, and the trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Alumina prices continued to bottom - out, and the trading volume of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased significantly. The price of cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [23]. 2. Inventory and Premium - Aluminum inventories showed different trends, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventories increasing by 1.50 tons. The premium and spread of aluminum and alumina also changed [23]. 3. News - High - level political events such as the Japanese House of Representatives election and the release of the Fed's meeting minutes [25]. Platinum and Palladium 1. Price and Trading Volume - Platinum and palladium prices showed an upward trend. For example, the closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 615.10 with a 0.83% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased [28]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of platinum and palladium ETFs decreased. NYMEX platinum inventories increased by 100 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventories decreased by 3,888 ounces [28]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Platinum and palladium spreads and exchange rates changed. The US dollar index decreased by 0.32% [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel 1. Price and Trading Volume - Nickel prices fluctuated widely. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 142,320. Stainless steel prices also changed, with the closing price of the stainless steel main contract being 14,305. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends [32]. 2. Industry Chain Data - The prices of electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and other products in the nickel industry chain changed, and the prices of stainless steel products also showed different trends [32]. 3. News - Indonesia's policies on nickel, such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses, revising the benchmark price formula, and adjusting production targets [32][33][35].