格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bottle chip in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, causing crude oil prices to oscillate. Last week, bottle chip supply decreased slightly. There is no obvious improvement in the demand side. In the short - term, bottle chip prices will oscillate following raw materials, with the main contract PR2603 in the reference range of 5,930 - 6,180 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Monday night session, the main price of bottle chips dropped 4 yuan to 5,978 yuan/ton. The price of East China water bottle - grade bottle chips was 6,035 yuan/ton (-15), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6,030 yuan/ton (+10). In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 45 lots to 60,200 lots, and short positions decreased by 33 lots to 61,200 lots [3] 3.2 Important Information - Supply, Cost, and Profit: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 325,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,400 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 70.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5,588 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 3.7 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton [3] - Exports: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5,865,000 tons [3] - December Production and Capacity Utilization: In December 2025, the production of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1,478,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - Oil Price: The geopolitical situation in Iran and other regions has eased, reducing potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to fall. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price. The ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 was at 63.94 dollars/barrel, down 0.19 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30%. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/ton, and fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/ton in the night session [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, leading to crude oil price oscillations. Last week, bottle chip supply decreased slightly. There is no obvious improvement in the demand side, with the downstream soft drink industry operating at 65 - 75%, oil plants at 57%, and the PET sheet industry at 60%. In the short - term, bottle chip prices will oscillate following raw materials [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [3]