格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20260120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The main 03 contract settled at 64.66 cents, with a daily decline of 0.08% but a weekly increase of 0.39% supported by the neutral and positive USDA monthly supply - demand report. The domestic cotton market has a mix of long and short factors. The expected supply tightening competes with poor downstream transmission and increased imported cotton supply. With uncertainties in overseas geopolitics and trade policies, the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is insufficient in the short - term, and it is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.66, down 5 points; 5 - month at 66.23, down 4 points; 7 - month at 67.65, down 4 points, with about 33,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 344,243 and an open interest of 1,142,326. The settlement prices were 14,555 for January, 14,570 for May, and 14,820 for September [2] 2. Important Information - In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons (51.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (31.0%). From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. From September to December 2025, cumulative imports were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. On the 16th, the listed volume of 2025/26 cotton in terms of lint was about 34,000 tons, mainly from Telangana, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. CCI's daily auction was about 3,400 tons, far below the recent average. The 2024/25 S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 53,500 rupees per candy, equivalent to about 75.55 cents per pound. CCI's cumulative purchase of 2025/26 seed cotton in terms of lint was about 1.37 million tons, with a 2024/25 cotton inventory of 7,310 tons [2] 3. Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The domestic cotton market has a mix of long and short factors, and short - term Zhengzhou cotton is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Build long positions for the 05 contract below 14,500 yuan per ton and set a take - profit at 15,000 yuan per ton [2]