宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年1月20日）-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term soybean market will maintain a weak oscillating operation with a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The palm oil market will also maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term due to factors such as unmet demand expectations and high inventory [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: The intraday view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is weak oscillation [5] - Core Logic: The US soybean market is supported by US crushing demand, but Brazil's record - high production prospects pressure the far - month contracts. In the domestic market, the import cost is falling, and the market is weak. The price of the industrial chain is relatively firm due to lower oil mill operating rates, inventory depletion, and rigid demand, with a strengthening basis. The core market game is between upstream price - holding and downstream slow - down in procurement. The long - term loose expectation suppresses far - month contracts, while spot firmness and inventory depletion support near - month contracts [5] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: The intraday view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is weak oscillation [7] - Core Logic: Recently, the palm oil market has been suppressed by Indonesia's under - expected biofuel policy and high inventory at the origin, resulting in weak oscillating prices. Indonesia's postponement of the B50 project and maintaining the B40 blending standard have disappointed the market's demand expectation for about 3 million tons of palm oil consumption growth. Although Malaysia's inventory is affected by seasonal production cuts, the absolute level remains high, with continuous supply pressure. Market sentiment has turned bearish, and speculative funds have continuously reduced net long positions, leading to weak price rebounds. In the short term, without new demand drivers, palm oil will maintain a weak oscillating trend [7]