金信期货日刊-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term and fluctuate within a range in the medium term, with inventory reduction, import volume, and downstream operating rates being the key variables [2] - For methanol trading, the strategy is to short on rallies during corrections, with light positions and staged profit - taking [4] - Regarding stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher with reduced trading volume today. There is a possibility of further upward movement tomorrow, and it should be treated as a volatile market for high - selling and low - buying [8] - Gold has reached a new high after a shock adjustment, and the operation strategy is to go long [10] - Iron ore is seeking a bottom with weak domestic demand support, and the strategy is to short on rebounds [11] - Glass has a bearish outlook based on today's large - negative candlestick [14] - Rubber is bearish due to a weakening macro - atmosphere and increasing domestic spot inventory pressure [18] - Pulp futures have entered a new phase of mainly oscillating and secondarily declining, and should be treated with a bearish bias [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Reasons for price decline: Winter is the demand off - season, and downstream MTO and other devices plan to stop or reduce production due to compressed profits; port inventory is high (about 1.5372 million tons in early January), and inland factories face high shipment pressure; the chemical sector has corrected after a collective rise, and capital has taken profits, intensifying short - term fluctuations. Additionally, stable international situations, coastal olefin device maintenance, and poor downstream profitability have also affected the price [2] - Trading strategy: Short on rallies during corrections, operate with light positions, and take staged profits [4] Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher today with reduced trading volume. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices showed obvious weak oscillations. Technically, the small - cycle adjustment is sufficient, and there is a possibility of further upward movement tomorrow. It should be treated as a volatile market for high - selling and low - buying [8] Gold - Market situation: Gold reached a new high after a shock adjustment, and the operation strategy is to go long [10] Iron Ore - Market situation: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus has further intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real - estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking. Technically, it closed with a large - negative candlestick today, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [11] Glass - Market situation: The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has also been reduced. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it closed with a large - negative candlestick today, and the bearish outlook remains unchanged [14] Rubber - Reasons for bearish view: The macro - atmosphere shows signs of correction, and the continuous upward momentum is insufficient. As the capital sentiment cools down, rubber futures need a correction. Also, the domestic spot inventory pressure is gradually emerging [18] Pulp - Market situation: The recent upward trend of pulp futures has been interrupted, and it has entered a new phase of mainly oscillating and secondarily declining. From a fundamental perspective, the recent changes include the halt of the further increase of hardwood pulp (staying around 4,700), the decline of the basis of most softwood pulp, and the large - scale registration of pulp warehouse receipts, indicating that the futures price is overvalued relative to the spot price. It should be treated with a bearish bias [21]