LLDPE：标品排产回升，现货交投转弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The futures price of LLDPE has been in a continuous callback. The upstream has low - price pre - sales, and the inventory transfer is smooth with little pressure. The short - term liquidity of the spot has tightened, and the standard product production has remained at a low level. The PE spot is still relatively firm, but the trading volume has weakened significantly after the callback of the futures price, and the basis strengthening is not as good as before. The downstream product profit has been compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The overseas market quotation has risen, and the long - term import profit has opened, but downstream factories are mostly cautious [1]. - The raw material end, the price of crude oil has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer link has weakened, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes has been repaired. The PE futures has continued to rebound, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and the downstream has not chased the price to replenish inventory. The near - end downstream agricultural film has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the middle and downstream to hold inventory has weakened, the upstream has sold at a discounted price at the end of the year, the factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the basis is weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial production, the maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 is 6667, with a daily decline of 0.42%. The trading volume is 468,196, and the position has increased by 13,977. The 05 - contract basis is - 67 (compared with - 95 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 24 (compared with - 28 the previous day) [1]. - Spot Price: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 6600 yuan/ton, 6720 yuan/ton, and 6800 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]. Spot News - The futures price has continuously declined. The upstream has low - price pre - sales, and the inventory transfer is smooth. The short - term liquidity of the spot has tightened, and the standard product production has remained at a low level. The PE spot is still relatively firm, but the trading volume has weakened significantly after the callback of the futures price, and the basis strengthening is not as good as before. The downstream product profit has been compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The overseas market quotation has risen, and the long - term import profit has opened, and the import volume has increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end, the price of crude oil has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer link has weakened, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes has been repaired. The PE futures has continued to rebound, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and the downstream has not chased the price to replenish inventory. The near - end downstream agricultural film has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the middle and downstream to hold inventory has weakened, the upstream has sold at a discounted price at the end of the year, the factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the basis is weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial production, the maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1 [2]