动力煤：市场情绪偏弱，短期价格弱调整

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment for thermal coal is weak, and the short - term price will be in a weak adjustment [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - In terms of origin prices, the price of Datong Southern Suburban Thermal Coal Q5500 is 599 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous period and 59 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Ejin Horo Banner Electric Coal Q5500 in Ordos is 542 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and 36 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Yulin Bituminous Coal Powder Q6000 is 591 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous period and 52 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - For port prices, the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 693 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous period and 65 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q5000 is 605 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous period and 60 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q4500 is 519 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous period and 66 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - Regarding overseas prices, the price of Indonesian FOB Q3800 is 49 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period and down 1 US dollar/ton from the same period last year; the price of Australian FOB Q5500 is 74 US dollars/ton, down 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period and 7 US dollars/ton from the same period last year [1] - In January's long - term agreement prices, the price of port Q5500 is 684 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous period and 9 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Shanxi Q5500 is 540 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Shaanxi Q5500 is 483 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Western Inner Mongolia Q5500 is 453 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, the national raw coal output continued to increase month - on - month, reaching 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. The daily average output in December was 1,410 tons, 13 tons less than that in November and 5.6 tons less than the same period last year. The cumulative national raw coal output in 2025 was 483,178 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% [2] - In December 2025, the national coal and lignite imports were 5,859.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The over - expected performance of imported coal was mainly due to the "rush to export" phenomenon of overseas suppliers affected by Indonesia's export tariff policy adjustment and the end - of - year domestic supply tightening and the decline of domestic coal prices giving imported coal an advantage [2] - On January 8, 2026, the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the government plans to approve about 600 million tons of coal production quota in 2026 (lower than the 2025 production target of 739.7 million tons). The expected coal production in Indonesia in 2025 was 790 million tons (lower than the 2024 coal output of 836 million tons) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal in the northern ports) is - 1 [3]