银河期货沥青周报-20260120

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the escalation and subsequent decline of the Iran situation, geopolitical risks have fluctuated more widely. The impact of the Venezuelan situation on oil prices has been gradually digested by the market, and the expectation of tight supply of asphalt raw materials has eased. However, the increase in raw material discounts has not been fully priced in, leading to high - level oscillations in asphalt. In terms of supply and demand, the off - season at the beginning of the year has arrived as expected, with both weekly supply and demand decreasing month - on - month. The industrial chain inventory remains at a low level, and the spot price is relatively firm. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [5]. - For trading strategies, the single - side trading of asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level with increased geopolitical risk fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage between BU4 - 6, and it is recommended to wait and see for options trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: Geopolitical risks lead to increased cost fluctuations. The supply and demand of asphalt are in the off - season, with inventory at a low level and the spot price remaining firm. The futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [5]. - Trading Strategies: Single - side trading: high - level oscillation with increased geopolitical risk fluctuations; Arbitrage: focus on BU4 - 6 positive spread arbitrage; Options: wait and see [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Cost and Supply: The cost is strengthening, and the supply is at a low level. The price of asphalt in some regions has increased, and the overall market price has continued to rise. The increase in crude oil prices and the reduction in supply in some areas have led to price increases in North China, Shandong, and other regions [11]. - Price Movement: The price of asphalt in the market has continued to rise. The prices in Northeast, North China, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and Southwest (Sichuan and Chongqing) regions have increased by 5 - 40 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions have remained stable. The rise in crude oil and futures prices, as well as supply - demand factors in different regions, have supported the price increase [11]. - Cost and Profit: Geopolitical instability has increased cost fluctuations. The Brent main contract is expected to fluctuate between 61 - 64 US dollars. As of January 9, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The basis of asphalt in different regions has changed to varying degrees [14]. - Production: The overall production of asphalt has increased slightly month - on - month. The production in the Northwest region has increased significantly, while that in the Northeast region has decreased slightly. The production in other regions has shown different degrees of change [16][17]. - Inventory: The refinery inventory has remained at a low level, with a slight increase in the overall inventory. The social inventory has increased steadily due to the storage of winter - reserve resources. Different regions have shown different inventory trends due to factors such as production, demand, and resource storage [19][20][22]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Price and Spread: The closing price of the asphalt main contract, Brent crude oil, and the prices of asphalt in different regions have shown certain fluctuations. The basis and profit margins of asphalt refineries and refined oil refineries have also changed [25]. - Supply and Demand Data: The refinery operating rate has increased slightly, the refinery inventory rate has increased slightly, the social inventory rate has increased slightly, the refinery weekly output has increased, and the refinery shipment volume has also changed [25].