中国成品油周报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic refined oil market showed a situation of stable supply and improved demand, with both gasoline and diesel inventories increasing. Next week, it is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, with potential increases in domestic gasoline and diesel production, continued weak demand, and rising inventory pressure on Shandong independent refineries [6][7]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis Market Overview - Supply: The national refinery operating rate remained stable at 70.6%, with the operating rate of major refineries rising 0.3 percentage points to 77.2%, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries continuing to decline. The production of gasoline and diesel from major refineries increased slightly, while that from local refineries continued to decline, and the diesel-to-gasoline ratio dropped to 1.31 [6]. - Demand: The purchasing enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches of the market increased this week, market sentiment improved, and the sales-to-production ratios of gasoline and diesel both rebounded above the balance [6]. - Inventory: Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline inventory was 11.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 110,000 tons (+1.0%); diesel inventory was 12.81 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 270,000 tons (+2.1%). Local refinery diesel inventory decreased, while gasoline inventory increased slightly. Social inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased [6]. Future Outlook - Next week, the domestic refined oil market is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply may see a slight increase in overall domestic gasoline and diesel production, while demand will remain weak. Shandong independent refineries are expected to face rising inventory pressure [7]. Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking Price - Gasoline market prices increased slightly in most regions, with the national average price rising from 7,274 yuan/ton to 7,311 yuan/ton. Diesel market prices also increased slightly, with the national average price rising from 6,029 yuan/ton to 6,036 yuan/ton [14]. Profit - The refining profit of major refineries was 762 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 85 yuan/ton. The refining profit of independent refineries was 247 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 121 yuan/ton [19]. Operating Rate - The operating rate of Chinese refineries remained stable at 70.6%, with the operating rate of major refineries rising 0.3 percentage points to 77.2%, and the operating rate of independent refineries and Shandong local refineries both declining slightly [32][34]. Production - This week, the production of gasoline and diesel from major refineries increased slightly, while that from local refineries continued to decline. The diesel-to-gasoline ratio dropped to 1.31 [42][46]. Sales - The sales volume and sales-to-production ratio of gasoline and diesel from independent refineries and Shandong local refineries both increased [51]. Demand - The demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak. Although some terminals started to stock up for the Spring Festival, overall consumption sentiment was still dull [7]. Inventory - Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased this week. Next week, the gasoline inventory of Shandong independent refineries is expected to rise slightly, and diesel inventory is also expected to increase [74][78].