Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market continued to cool, and the prices of finished steel products remained in a weak oscillation within the bottom range. The explosion accident at Baotou Steel's plate factory may lead to a new round of safety inspections in the steel industry, with a possible short - term decline in the operating rate of some steel mills, which supports the prices of hot - rolled coils [2]. - The prices of iron ore may face adjustments at high levels due to market sentiment fluctuations and the impact of the explosion accident. Future focus should be on steel mill restocking and molten iron production rhythms [4]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be affected by the overall market sentiment, cost factors, and "dual - carbon" policies. Attention should be paid to potential supply - restricting events in manganese ore and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [8][9]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. However, short - term market sentiment fluctuations and high - volatility risks should be noted [15]. - The prices of industrial silicon may oscillate repeatedly. Future focus should be on the implementation of production cuts by large factories and the production adjustment rhythms of downstream enterprises [18]. - The prices of polysilicon are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and potential changes in exchange risk - control measures [21]. - The glass market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1170 yuan/ton [24]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend, with the main contract reference price range of 1150 - 1270 yuan/ton [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3140 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2132 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 27384 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3299 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 12645 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices both decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market cooled, and steel prices oscillated at the bottom. The explosion at Baotou Steel may lead to supply contractions, supporting hot - rolled coil prices. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils and rebar is generally neutral, and future focus should be on inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils and "dual - carbon" policies [2]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 794.00 yuan/ton, down 2.22% (-18.00). The positions decreased by 32521 lots to 61.63 million lots. The weighted positions were 96.64 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 804 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.07% [3]. - Strategy Views - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, and the recent arrival volume decreased. The daily molten iron output decreased, and the blast furnace maintenance and restart were both ongoing. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased. The iron ore price is supported but lacks new driving forces. After the explosion accident, the molten iron production may decline slightly, and future focus should be on steel mill restocking and molten iron production rhythms [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes - On January 19, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fell 0.34%, closing at 5808 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of 62 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) fell 0.39%, closing at 5548 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a premium of 252 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - Strategy Views - The market sentiment of many commodities has cooled, and the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have adjusted. The supply - demand of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Future price trends will be affected by the overall market sentiment, cost factors, and "dual - carbon" policies. Attention should be paid to potential supply - restricting events in manganese ore and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Quotes - On January 19, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 0.30%, closing at 1174.5 yuan/ton. The Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal price was 1582.1 yuan/ton, up 1.7 yuan/ton, with a premium of 218 yuan/ton over the futures. The coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.23%, closing at 1721.0 yuan/ton. The Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke price was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a discount of 105.5 yuan/ton to the futures [11]. - Strategy Views - The prices of coking coal and coke oscillated and declined last week due to the cooling of market sentiment. In the future, the overall commodity market may maintain a bullish sentiment, but short - term fluctuations may occur. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, but the steel mills' restocking willingness is not strong. The prices are expected to show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, and short - term market sentiment fluctuations and high - volatility risks should be noted [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8845 yuan/ton, up 2.79% (+240). The weighted positions decreased by 2267 lots to 369608 lots. The spot prices of East China 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with bases of 355 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively [17]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 50505 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+305). The weighted positions decreased by 1833 lots to 82463 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material all rose by 0.15 yuan/kg, with a basis of 4495 yuan/ton [19]. - Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The price may oscillate repeatedly due to short - term news disturbances. The supply has decreased, and the demand has weakened. If the production cut of a large northwest factory is implemented, the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Future focus should be on the implementation of production cuts and the production adjustment rhythms of downstream enterprises [18]. - Polysilicon: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The futures positions and liquidity have declined, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and potential changes in exchange risk - control measures [20][21]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Quotes - Glass: The closing price of the main contract was 1070 yuan/ton, down 2.99% (-33). The North China and Central China spot prices remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 250.50 million cases (-4.51%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 18703 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 34198 lots [23]. - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract was 1192 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shahe heavy - soda spot price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 0.23 million tons (-4.51%), with the heavy - soda inventory increasing by 0.18 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 0.05 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased 14963 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 30133 lots [25]. - Strategy Views - Glass: The market sentiment has weakened, and the supply - demand is in a loose balance. The supply is at a low level, the demand is light, and the inventory is still higher than in previous years. The price is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1170 yuan/ton [24]. - Soda ash: The market continued to oscillate weakly. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory pressure still exists. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend, with the main contract reference price range of 1150 - 1270 yuan/ton [26].
黑色建材日报-20260120
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-20 02:03