格林期货早盘提示：白糖-20260120

Group 1: Sugar in the Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic sugar market has a calm fundamental situation with no unexpected news. Technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar has weakened, and the overall commodity performance is sluggish. The market is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state in the short - term, and the support at the lower integer level should be monitored [1]. Key Points from the Directory - Market Review: On January 19, 2026, the closing price of the SR605 contract was 5,244 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.27%, and the night - session closed at 5,233 yuan/ton. The SR609 contract closed at 5,260 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the night - session closed at 5,245 yuan/ton [1]. - Important Information: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,306 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,310 - 5,380 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,170 - 5,210 yuan/ton, with an overall reduction of 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5,700 - 5,900 yuan/ton, with an individual reduction of 10 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 518, an increase of 18 from the same period last year. As of January 17, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a decrease of 5.6156 million tons or 16.09% from the same period last year. The sugar content was 11.95%, an increase of 0.08% from the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 9.790%, a decrease of 0.024% from the same period last year. Sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a decrease of 0.5581 million tons or 16.3% from the same period last year. The number of white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 14,126, with a daily increase of 0 [1]. - Market Logic: The ICE raw - sugar market was closed due to a US holiday, so there was no quotation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. The latest data from Thailand and India were negative for international sugar prices, while the domestic white - sugar market had a calm fundamental situation [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long - term short position of the SR605 contract and monitor the support performance around 5,200 [1]. Group 2: Rubber in the Energy and Chemical Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The natural - rubber market has insufficient positive fundamental support due to the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend. The synthetic - rubber market is affected by the weakening of the commodity sentiment, and the short - term price is mainly in the process of adjustment. In general, the rubber sector is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support below. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5]. Key Points from the Directory - Market Review: As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. The NR2603 contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%. The BR2603 contract closed at 11,605 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.78% [5]. - Important Information: The price of raw - material glue in Thailand was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht or 0.86%. The cup - rubber price was 52 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.20 Thai baht or 0.38%. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton, with no change. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade areas in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%. The general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the bonded - warehouse samples of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. The price of whole - latex was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.64%. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1,900 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars or 0.26%, equivalent to 13,310 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.54%. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between the mixed - standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 895 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 10 yuan/ton. The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was around 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,150 - 9,250 yuan/ton. The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 50 yuan to 11,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped 150 yuan to 12,100 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Logic: For natural rubber, the price continued to fall. With the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend, the fundamental situation was not favorable. For synthetic rubber, although the internal and external prices and supply of butadiene still provided some support to the market, the weakening of the commodity sentiment led to a decline in the actual - transaction price center. The production - device load of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly, but there was still inventory pressure [5]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the support near the moving average in the short - term for the rubber sector, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5].