宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026年1月20日）-20260120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2605 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the industry logic dominates with the ore price under pressure [2]. - The iron ore market fundamentals are weak, and the short - term ore price is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to the situation of steel mills' restocking [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a weak bias. The reference is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the industry logic dominates and the ore price is under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - The sudden steel mill accident over the weekend led to the expectation of reduced hot metal production, putting pressure on the ore price. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continued to weaken, with high - rising inventory, weak and stable steel mill production, limited improvement in profitability, and the continuous accumulation of contradictions in the off - season steel market. Ore demand continued to be weak. However, steel mills would restock before the holiday [3]. - Domestic port arrivals declined from the high level, and the shipments of miners decreased again. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent port arrivals would decline. Although domestic mine supply was increasing, the ore supply was seasonally shrinking. Currently, although the iron ore supply had shrunk, the inventory was high, and the demand was weak and stable. The fundamentals of the ore market were weak, and with the disturbance of the steel mill accident over the weekend, the weight of the industry logic increased, and the short - term ore price was under pressure to decline [3].