棕榈油：短期利空有限，关注减产兑现节奏，豆油：美豆题材不足，反弹高度受限

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term negative factors are limited, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production cuts [1] - Soybean oil: There are insufficient themes for US soybeans, and the rebound height is limited [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 8,648 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - time closing price was 8,710 yuan/ton with a 0.72% change; soybean oil's daytime closing price was 7,996 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and night - time closing price was 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.13% change; rapeseed oil's daytime closing price was 8,902 yuan/ton with a - 1.78% change, and night - time closing price was 8,922 yuan/ton with a 0.22% change. Malaysian palm oil's daytime closing price was 4,054 ringgit/ton with a 1.86% change, and night - time closing price was 4,093 ringgit/ton with a 0.64% change. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 52.51 cents/pound with a - 0.19% change [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil's trading volume was 358,548 lots with a decrease of 212,017 lots, and open interest was 413,122 lots with a decrease of 1,957 lots; soybean oil's trading volume was 209,449 lots with a decrease of 155,259 lots, and open interest was 716,725 lots with an increase of 584 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume was 367,634 lots with a decrease of 95,047 lots, and open interest was 253,596 lots with a decrease of 16,032 lots [1] - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,900 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 US dollars/ton with a 15 - dollar increase [1] - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 52 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 604 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 998 yuan/ton [1] - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 254 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared to 389 yuan/ton two trading days ago; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 652 yuan/ton, compared to - 658 yuan/ton previously; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 26 yuan/ton, compared to 12 yuan/ton previously; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 120 yuan/ton, compared to 130 yuan/ton previously; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 21 yuan/ton, compared to 53 yuan/ton previously [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4,125 ringgit/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.61%. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.39% [2] 3.3 Brazilian Agricultural Situation - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, a 1.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year. The soybean harvest in Mato Grosso is in the leading position, while the harvest in Paraná is lagging behind the historical average. The planting progress of second - crop corn has reached 1.1% of the estimated total area, compared to 0.3% in the same period last year. The harvest rate of first - crop corn is 1.6%, significantly lower than 4.1% in the same period last year [5] - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons (last year's exports were 108.2 million tons), the soybean crushing volume will be 60 million tons (higher than the previous year's estimated 58.5 million tons), the total soybean supply will reach 183.79 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous year. The estimated soybean meal production in 2026 is 47.4 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous year, and the estimated soybean meal exports are 24.7 million tons [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [6]