五矿期货有色金属日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as tariff expectations and market liquidity. Although there are some negative factors, the sentiment is not overly pessimistic in the context of a bullish precious metals market and loose US financial market liquidity expectations. In the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is generally regarded positively. However, the prices of different metals will show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Information: On January 19th, LME copper 3M rose 1.28% to $12,987/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 101,680 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 3,850 tons to 147,425 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by about 10,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The SHFE copper spot import loss was about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,440 yuan/ton, slightly widening month - on - month. [2] - Strategy Viewpoint: The expectation of Trump's additional tariffs on key minerals has weakened, and the US plan to impose additional tariffs on 8 European countries has cooled market sentiment. However, with the strong performance of precious metals and the expectation of loose liquidity in the US financial market, the sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, the LME spot market is strong, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 100,000 - 103,500 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,200/ton. [3] Aluminum - Market Information: On January 19th, LME aluminum closed up 1.12% at $3,165/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,225 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position slightly increased to 698,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 tons to 141,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum bar social inventory increased by 9,000 tons. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 485,000 tons. [4] - Strategy Viewpoint: The precious metals market has strengthened again, and market sentiment has improved. The high spot premium of US aluminum and the low LME global aluminum inventory at multi - year lows limit the downside of aluminum prices. Although high prices still affect domestic downstream demand, as prices decline, downstream inventory replenishment may increase. Coupled with the expectation of "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic industry, the aluminum price may be relatively strong in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract today is 23,900 - 24,400 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,120 - 3,200/ton. [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: On January 19th, the price of cast aluminum alloy stabilized. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.68% at 22,890 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 24,600 lots, and the trading volume was 11,100 lots, a decrease month - on - month. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 tons to 69,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts was 1,200 yuan/ton, slightly widening month - on - month. The average price of mainstream domestic ADC12 remained flat, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased by 300 tons to 43,200 tons. [8] - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and supply - side disturbances continue. However, demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [9] Lead - Market Information: On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 1.65% to 17,185 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 112,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME lead 3S fell $26.5 to $2,048.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 166,000 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,600 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 135 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 206,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 43,700 tons. [11] - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the operating rate of primary lead has remained high and increased slightly. The raw material inventory on the recycling side has increased, and the weekly operating rate of recycled lead has increased marginally. The lead price is still close to the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and the supply of lead ingots has increased marginally. The operating rate of downstream battery manufacturers has improved marginally, and the social inventory of lead ingots has increased. After the winter cooling, the transportation of waste batteries has become difficult, the scrap pricing coefficient has increased, and the smelting profit of recycled lead has declined slightly. The lead price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades. However, in the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is still regarded positively. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the SHFE - LME ratio need to be observed. [11][12] Zinc - Market Information: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index fell 1.17% to 24,456 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 232,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME zinc 3S fell $41.5 to $3,222.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 232,200 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,420 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 40 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was at par, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 40 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,500 tons. [13] - Strategy Viewpoint: The port inventory of zinc ore has decreased slightly, and the import TC of zinc concentrates has decreased slightly. However, the increase in zinc price has slightly increased zinc smelting profits, and the industrial situation has not improved significantly. The social inventory of zinc ingots has started to increase, and the SHFE - LME ratio has stopped rising and declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of SHFE zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. The zinc price has a large potential for catch - up growth compared to copper and aluminum. The zinc price is still in the process of catching up with the macro - attribute of the sector. It has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades. However, in the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is still regarded positively. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the SHFE - LME ratio need to be observed. [14] Tin - Market Information: On January 19th, the tin price continued to weaken. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 389,500 yuan/ton, a 3.88% decrease from the previous day. The smelting operating rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally stable at a high level. Yunnan was about 87.81%, basically unchanged and production was normal. Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar has accelerated, and the increase in tin price has boosted the enthusiasm for resumption. In addition, it is estimated that about 5,000 tons of tin ore will be imported in December, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan has significantly eased compared to the previous period, with an expectation of further import increases. However, after the two regions resumed from maintenance, there was insufficient upward momentum, and there were constraints on the scrap side and downstream high - price waiting - and - seeing. The short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday. [15][16] - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand situation of tin has improved marginally, but the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on the price. Coupled with the withdrawal of speculative funds, the tin price may continue to decline in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 360,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME tin is $46,000 - 50,000/ton. [17] Nickel - Market Information: On January 19th, the nickel price rebounded after hitting a low. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 142,710 yuan/ton, a 0.66% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand gradually declined. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 7,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The nickel ore price remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, and the price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of nickel iron increased significantly, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,012 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day. [19] - Strategy Viewpoint: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory in the short term. It is expected that the SHFE nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for the SHFE nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 19,000/ton. [20] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 144,461 yuan in the evening session, a 2.84% decrease from the previous working day. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 143,500 - 146,300 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 4,100 yuan (- 2.75%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 140,600 - 143,700 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 3.30% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 147,260 yuan, a 0.73% increase from the previous day's closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan. [22][23] - Strategy Viewpoint: The optimistic sentiment has eased, and the lithium price fluctuated widely on Monday. The progress of mine type change in Jiangxi mines has been made, but even if the mining license is obtained, there are still procedures such as the safety production license and environmental impact assessment approval, and it is difficult to directly translate into supply at present. The impact of this event on the sentiment level should be mainly concerned. If the increase in lithium price is fully transmitted to the end - users, the increase in battery cost will suppress some energy - storage demand, and the current price still has a certain emotional premium. The lithium carbonate price has fluctuated greatly recently, and there are many disturbances in the industrial and macro aspects. It is recommended to wait and see or make a light - position attempt. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream acceptance willingness, and changes in position on the disk. The reference range for the GZFE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 140,200 - 151,000 yuan/ton. [23] Alumina - Market Information: On January 19, 2026, as of 3 pm, the alumina index fell 0.69% to 2,726 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 704,400 lots, an increase of 12,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,565 yuan/ton, at a discount of 168 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $305/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 82 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Monday were reported at 187,900 tons, an increase of 111,000 tons from the previous trading day. The CIF price in Guinea remained at $63/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $60/ton. [25] - Strategy Viewpoint: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the resumption of production in the AXIS mine is expected to cause the ore price to decline in an oscillatory manner. Pay attention to the support at the import cost position of Guinea ore. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market expectation for the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the future has increased. However, continued rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward - moving cost support, and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The cost - performance of chasing up is not high. One can wait for an opportunity to short the near - month contract at a high price. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [26] Stainless Steel - Market Information: At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,305 yuan/ton, a 0.21% (+ 30) increase on the day, with a unilateral position of 263,700 lots, an increase of 2,294 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 14,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 455 (- 130), and the Wuxi basis was - 205 (- 80). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was reported at 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was reported at 1,015 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous day. The recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day.