格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260120

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The US biofuel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Currently, it is difficult to operate in the oil market, and no trend direction has been formed. Given the strengthening of the bottom of soybean and palm oil, it is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset of buying on dips. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the rebound strength and hold short - term long positions [2] - For double - meal futures, the 05 contract maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading, and the 09 contract may gradually decline. Consider gradually laying out short positions for the 09 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the commodity market cooled down. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector, while palm oil and soybean oil showed resistance. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,996 yuan/ton, down 0.25% day - on - day, with an increase of 584 lots in positions [1] b. Important Information - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month from South America [1] c. Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation pressured international crude oil prices, but the US biofuel policy boosted US soybean oil prices. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan and Malaysia's reduction of export tariffs affected the palm oil market [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, there were both positive and negative factors. For palm oil, the cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan led to inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market, but then the price rebounded [2] d. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - For arbitrage trading, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] 2. Double - Meal Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with no change in the closing price day - on - day, and a decrease of 24,449 lots in positions [2] b. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, with an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton [2][3] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 178 million tons [3] c. Market Logic - Externally, the Chinese tariff adjustment on Canadian rapeseed slightly dragged down the protein meal market, but the Brazilian discount remained firm. The main contract of domestic protein meal futures oscillated in the short term [4] - Domestically, the policy of reducing tariffs on Canadian rapeseed was a major negative factor. The spot market was supported by terminal inventory building before the Spring Festival [4] d. Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract of double - meal, maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading and trade within the day. Gradually lay out short positions for the 09 contract. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4] - No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [4]