国泰君安期货：螺纹钢：突发事件影响，原料拖累成材

Group 1: Report Core View - The prices of both rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot have declined, affected by sudden events and raw materials [2][3] - The trend strength of both rebar and hot-rolled coil is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Futures and Spot Data Futures - RB2605 closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan (-1.04%), with a trading volume of 1,056,242 lots and a position of 1,727,955 lots, a decrease of 27,384 lots [2] - HC2605 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.75%), with a trading volume of 486,769 lots and a position of 1,502,009 lots, a decrease of 12,645 lots [2] Spot - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2] - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2] - Tangshan billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,960 yuan/ton [2] Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 increased by 7 yuan to 137 yuan [2] - The basis of HC2605 increased by 12 yuan to -15 yuan [2] - RB2601 - RB2605 spread decreased by 4 yuan to 75 yuan [2] - HC2601 - HC2605 spread decreased by 9 yuan to -45 yuan [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 spread increased by 20 yuan to 129 yuan [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 spread increased by 7 yuan to 159 yuan [2] - Spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 10 yuan to -109 yuan [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On January 19th, an explosion occurred in a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steel - making department of Baotou Plate Factory, which will affect the production of the plate factory and surrounding production lines [2] - January 15th steel union weekly data: rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.62 tons [3] - Total inventory: rebar decreased by 0.04 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.8 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 6.91 tons [4] - Apparent demand: rebar increased by 14.44 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 5.55 tons, and the total increased by 27.5 tons [4] - In December 2025, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons (4.2%); the average price was 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton (11.0%). From January to December, the cumulative imported steel was 605.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 75.6 million tons (11.1%) [4] - In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1,807 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 164.3 million tons, a daily output decrease of 11.0% month - on - month; 1,837 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 167.0 million tons, a daily output decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; 2,081 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 189.2 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.9% month - on - month [4] - In late December 2025, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27 million tons (3.6%); a decrease of 112 million tons (13.4%) compared with late November; an increase of 62 million tons (9.4%) compared with the same period last year [4] - In late December 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,414 million tons, a decrease of 187 million tons (11.7%) compared with the previous ten - day period; an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the beginning of the year; a decrease of 14 million tons (1.0%) compared with the same ten - day period of the previous month; an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the same period last year; an increase of 178 million tons (14.4%) compared with the same period the year before last [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%); the average price was 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%). From January to October, the cumulative imported steel was 504.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68.0 million tons (11.9%) [4]