纸浆：震荡偏弱20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "shockingly weak", and the trend strength is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] Core View of the Report - The current market has a bearish fundamental pattern due to high domestic inventory and weak demand. The downstream paper industry has limited order releases and only maintains rigid procurement, which drags down the raw material pulp market. Attention should be paid to the demand sentiment changes in the broadleaf pulp market, the impact of the futures market on spot prices, and whether there will be a small - scale restocking demand before the Spring Festival. In the tissue paper market, prices are stable, and the overall trading enthusiasm is average. The key is to focus on changes in raw material pulp prices and the operation of paper mill equipment [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The daily - closing price of the pulp main contract remained unchanged at 5,362 yuan/ton, while the night - closing price dropped 36 yuan to 5,340 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 197,806 lots to 186,669 lots, the open interest of the 05 contract increased by 5,808 lots to 249,298 lots, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 9,550 tons to 139,584 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,248 lots to - 17,075 lots [3] - Spread Data: The basis of "Silver Star - Futures Main" remained unchanged at 88, the "Goldfish - Futures Main (non - standard)" decreased by 50 to - 712, and the month - spread of SP03 - SP05 decreased by 2 to - 34 [3] - Spot Market: Among softwood pulps, the domestic prices of Northwood, Cariboo, Lion Brand, Moon, Silver Star, and Russian Needle are 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, and 5,250 yuan/ton respectively. Among hardwood pulps, the domestic prices of Jinyou, Star, Xiaobian, and Bu are 4,650 yuan/ton, 4,650 yuan/ton, 4,650 yuan/ton, and 4,550 yuan/ton respectively. The domestic price of Kunhe chemical mechanical pulp is 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic price of Venus natural color pulp is 5,000 yuan/ton. Some international prices are also provided, such as 710 US dollars/ton for Silver Star, 590 US dollars/ton for Star, and 620 US dollars/ton for Venus [3] 2. Industry News - The trend of softwood pulp continued to be linked with the futures market, while the hardwood pulp market showed signs of loosening, with the tight supply situation alleviating and market sentiment weakening. The tissue paper market price remained stable, with average trading enthusiasm and cautious market sentiment. The raw material pulp price fluctuated, and the hardwood pulp price dropped slightly, providing insufficient support for tissue paper prices [4][5]