兼评Q4经济数据：2025年平稳收官，关注经济和权益开门红

Economic Performance - Q4 2025 GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, aligning with consensus expectations[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate difference narrowed to -0.7%, indicating a mild recovery in price levels[3] - The annual GDP growth target of 5.0% was successfully achieved for 2025[3] Income and Consumption - Disposable income growth slightly declined to 5.0% in Q4 2025, with a decrease in operational net income growth[4] - The consumption rate for households fell to 72.7%, marking a historically low level[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed weakness, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8% in December 2025[14] - Infrastructure investment dropped significantly, with broad infrastructure down 16.0% year-on-year in December[5] - Real estate investment saw a sharp decline of 17.2% year-on-year, with December's monthly decline reaching 35.8%[5] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales (social zero) fell by 0.3% year-on-year to 3.7%, with a monthly decline of 0.4% to 0.9%[6] - Service retail continued to outperform goods retail, with the gap expanding to 1.5% in December[6] Future Outlook - Economic performance in December showed signs of marginal improvement, with expectations for Q1 2026 GDP growth to improve due to early policy implementations[7] - Risks include potential policy changes and unexpected economic downturns in the U.S.[8]