首席点评：现货白银刷新历史高点

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [6] - Carbonate lithium: Cautiously bullish [6] - Other varieties: The report does not provide clear investment ratings for other varieties Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic growth forecast for 2026 has been raised, and artificial intelligence - driven IT investment is an important support for the global economy [8] - Precious metals continue to rebound. The long - term upward trend of gold is expected to continue, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise steadily [5] - The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors, and the short - term market sentiment is pessimistic, but the demand for crude oil from the Declaration members is expected to increase [2] - The price of carbonate lithium fluctuates greatly, and it is generally easy to rise and difficult to fall under the condition that the demand logic is not falsified [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main News Concerns International News - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and also raised the economic growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [8] Domestic News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. The manufacturing scale remained the world's first, but the population decreased [9] Industry News - Five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, with phased goals for different industries by 2027 and 2030 [10] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The European STOXX50 index fell by 1.28%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell by 0.47%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.33%. London gold rose by 1.58%, and London copper rose by 4.73% [11] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net investment of 722 billion yuan. Against the background of a weakening US economy and China's moderately loose monetary policy, the price of treasury bond futures has stabilized [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: SC night trading fell by 0.52%. Geopolitical risks in the oil market have decreased, and more crude oil is expected to be exported from Venezuela in the future. The demand for crude oil from the Declaration members is expected to increase [2][15] - Methanol: Methanol night trading fell by 1.39%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased. The overall inventory of coastal methanol decreased slightly. It is bullish in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [16] - Natural rubber: Domestic rubber - producing areas have stopped tapping, and the supply elasticity has weakened in the short - term. The price of raw rubber is relatively firm, and the demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The short - term rubber price is expected to be oscillating and bullish [17] - Polyolefin: Polyolefin futures closed down. The market focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the international crude oil price supports the cost. After a continuous rebound, polyolefin may oscillate in the short - term [18][19] - Glass and soda ash: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures were in consolidation. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The supply - demand relationship of glass is gradually being repaired, and soda ash still has inventory digestion pressure [20] Metals - Precious metals: Precious metals continue to rebound. The long - term upward trend of gold is expected to continue, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise steadily due to macro - environment and supply - demand gaps [5][21] - Copper: The copper price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may have a phased correction [22] - Zinc: The zinc price fell slightly at night. The supply of zinc concentrates is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow. After the release of optimistic sentiment in non - ferrous metals, the zinc price may have a phased correction [23] - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but low inventory and supply constraints provide support in the long - term [24][25] - Carbonate lithium: The main contract of carbonate lithium fluctuates greatly. The production has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased. The price is generally easy to rise and difficult to fall under the demand logic [3][26] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The short - term disk trend is expected to be bullish, and attention should be paid to the supply of coking coal, iron water output, and downstream restocking rhythm [27] - Steel: The steel price is oscillating and bullish. The supply and demand of the steel market are both weak, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The overall commodity atmosphere has turned warmer, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [28] - Iron ore: The iron ore price oscillates and falls back. The short - term ore price is expected to continue to oscillate slightly bullishly, and steel mills will continue to purchase on demand [29] Agricultural Products - Protein meal: The night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is strengthening, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase. The easing of China - Canada trade relations will put pressure on the price of rapeseed meal [30] - Edible oils: Soybean and palm oil were bullish and oscillating at night, while rapeseed oil was weak. The export of Malaysian palm oil is strong, and the US biodiesel policy is expected to be bullish. The supply of domestic rapeseed is expected to increase, which restricts the short - term price of soybean and palm oil [31] - Sugar: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar was oscillating and weak. The supply of sugar is seasonally increasing, and the import policy and high production cost support the disk. It is expected to operate in a low - level range in the short - term [32] - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton continued to reduce positions and weaken. The demand from textile enterprises provides support. After the decline, it is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the lower support [33] Shipping Index - Container shipping to Europe: EC fell by 1.77%. The SCFIS European line was basically flat. Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel, but the export rush of photovoltaic products may bring some support [34][35]