黑色建材日报：市场情绪悲观，铁矿偏弱运行-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The iron ore market sentiment is pessimistic, and iron ore prices are expected to be weak. The coking coal and coke markets have limited supply - demand contradictions and are expected to fluctuate. The thermal coal market has increasing market waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the coal prices in the production areas are running weakly [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3140 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The spot steel transactions were generally weak, with the disk opening high and closing low, and the market speculation willingness was poor [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The building material production is at a low level in the same period, and the daily average pig iron output has declined. Steel mills have successively announced winter storage policies, but the downstream winter storage willingness is insufficient. The building material fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the building material prices are expected to remain volatile. The high inventory of plates has always suppressed the price marginal elasticity, and the policy expectations have driven the long - term demand expectations. In the short term, the market sentiment is weak, and the prices depend on cost changes [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, iron ore prices were weakly running. The spot prices of imported iron ore at Tangshan Port declined weakly, with less market transactions. The 47 - port arrival volume was 28.977 million tons, a decrease of 1.173 million tons compared with the previous period; the 45 - port arrival volume was 26.597 million tons, a decrease of 2.606 million tons compared with the previous period [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while the shipments from non - mainstream countries continued to increase. The overall global shipments decreased. The demand for iron ore decreased last week, and the daily average pig iron output declined. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is increasing. In the short term, steel mills face winter storage replenishment, and iron ore prices will remain volatile [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal futures closed at 1174.5 yuan/ton, and the main contract of coke closed at 1721.0 yuan/ton, with the disk maintaining a range - bound operation. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented yet [6] Supply - Demand and Logic - Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and there is a price game between steel and coking enterprises. Before the Spring Festival, the replenishment of steel mills is expected to further boost demand. In the short term, coke is expected to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal is increasing, but the fundamental contradiction is relatively controllable. Driven by the replenishment demand, the demand for coking coal is expected to continue to improve. The coking coal price has a bottom support [6] Strategy - Coking coal: Fluctuation; Coke: Fluctuation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the production areas, the coal prices in the main production areas declined weakly. The terminal demand such as metallurgy, chemical industry, and power plants was for on - demand procurement. At the ports, the coal market prices were weakly running. The import coal market transactions were deserted [8] Supply - Demand and Logic - The market waiting - and - seeing sentiment is increasing, the supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the coal prices are fluctuating. In the long - term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged [8] Strategy - None [9]