格林期货早盘提示：尿素-20260120

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The urea price is expected to oscillate, with the 05 contract reference range between 1720 - 1820 yuan/ton. The market is advised to take a wait - and - see approach [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped 26 yuan to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area fell 10 yuan to 1760 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 4882 lots to 238,400 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 5056 lots to 255,200 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily urea production in the industry is 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous workday and 279,000 tons more than the same period last year. The current开工率 is 85.8%, a 4.5% increase from 81.2% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from last week, a 3.53% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 134,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons [1] - Demand: The compound fertilizer开工率 is 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%, and the melamine开工率 is 54.3%, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% [1] - Tender: On January 2nd, India's NFL held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest bids were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a 135.71% month - on - month increase; the average import price was 1107.41 dollars/ton, a 278.44% month - on - month increase. In the same month, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a 49.95% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a 50.80% month - on - month decrease [1] - Oil Price: Geopolitical tensions in Iran and other regions have eased, reducing potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to fall. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract fell 0.19 dollars to 63.94 dollars/barrel, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/barrel, and then fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - Last week, the urea enterprise inventory dropped below 1 million tons. The lowest factory - gate price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was between 1690 - 1700 yuan/ton. New orders for urea factories have significantly weakened this week, but most prices remain stable due to the support of pending orders. Market transaction resistance has increased, leading to the oscillation of urea prices [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to take a wait - and - see approach [1]