Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - In December, domestic industrial crude oil production was 17.8 million tons, a 0.6% year-on-year decline, while processing volume was 62.46 million tons, a 5.0% year-on-year increase. Trump's suspension of military action against Iran led to a partial retreat of geopolitical risk premium. The global crude oil supply-demand structure in Q1 2026 shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus remains the main factor suppressing oil prices [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. Fed officials' negative attitude towards short - term interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in Iran and the Greenland issue maintain the bullish trend of precious metals [2]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded. LME US inventory registration and narrowing of the US - London spread affected the market. Domestic copper market is mainly in a "supply exceeds demand" situation, with social inventory reaching 329,400 tons. It is recommended to hold a combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars increased by 13,000 tons each on Monday, and spot feedback was weak. Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan, waiting for a driving factor [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. Tight scrap aluminum supply and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal performance of the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years [5]. Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, with no long - term production cuts. The alumina market is in significant surplus, with the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan dropping to around 2,600 yuan. Spot prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have corrected. Downstream acceptance is limited, and spot trading is weak. The weighted precipitation funds of Shanghai zinc have dropped to 5.1 billion yuan. Considering the import ore TC and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand, the short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton. The annual high is considered to be 25,600 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies [7]. Lead - The import window remains open. Both domestic and foreign markets are in a low - level consolidation due to oversupply. In late January, the resumption of production of domestic primary aluminum smelters is relatively concentrated, increasing supply pressure. The lower support for Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level, and the market is active. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season, with high - level transactions blocked. The negative feedback risk is accumulating. Short - term sentiment is high, and it is advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]. Tin - Overnight, domestic and foreign tin prices rebounded. LME tin ingot inventory increased to 6,440 tons, and the spot discount widened to $104. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand. It is advisable to hold short - call options at a high level [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is weakly oscillating, and the market is active. Downstream acceptance of high prices is weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [10]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices mainly oscillated. Rebar apparent demand increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Hot - rolled coil demand improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends [11]. Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis narrowed recently. Supply is in line with seasonal patterns, with a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil but an increase in non - mainstream shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased. Demand is affected by potential disruptions to iron - making production. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Coke - The daily price mainly oscillated. The first round of coke price increase is expected to be implemented this week. Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by factors such as coal inventory and policies [13]. Coking Coal - The daily price mainly oscillated. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1,465 tons. Coking coal production increased significantly, terminal inventory increased, and total inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by inventory and policies [14]. Manganese Silicon - The daily price oscillated downward. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron - making production decreased seasonally, and silicon - manganese production and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [15]. Silicon Iron - The daily price oscillated downward. Affected by policies, the price is relatively strong. There are expectations of a decrease in power and raw material costs. Iron - making production rebounded, and overall demand is still resilient. Supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [16]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Freight Index (European Line) - The inflection point of spot freight rates has been confirmed, leading the futures market into a weak trend. The near - month contract is affected by the actual "rush - shipping" intensity due to export - tax policy adjustments. The 04 contract may oscillate in the short term, and the far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption - of - shipping expectation. Contract rules will be adjusted [17]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical tensions continue to affect the fuel oil market. Geopolitical risks are expected to support the high - sulfur cracking spread, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy - raw materials will tend to be loose in the medium term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [18]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow crude oil but with limited amplitude. The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored. The market is in an oscillating range [19]. Group 4: Chemicals Urea - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also improved. The short - term market may decline slightly, but with the start of agricultural demand, the market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range [20]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline at night. Import arrivals decreased significantly, and port inventory decreased. However, demand from some olefin plants decreased, and the market is expected to oscillate in a stalemate. The expected significant reduction in imports in Q1 provides support [21]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to oscillate strongly at night. Domestic refinery production cuts and reduced imports, along with increased downstream demand, led to a significant reduction in East China port inventory. The short - term market is expected to oscillate strongly [22]. Styrene - Styrene is in a tight - balance state, with limited port arrivals and expected inventory reduction. Domestic production enterprises have good sales, and exports provide some support [23]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The supply of propylene is tight in the short term, but downstream purchasing willingness is limited due to high costs. The demand support for polyethylene is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand fundamentals of polypropylene may lack upward driving force [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices are weakening, with a decline in production capacity utilization. The cost is rising, and it is expected to go through capacity reduction. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy. Caustic soda is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure [25]. PX and PTA - Before and after the Spring Festival, PX has limited upward - driving force, and PTA follows the raw material. In Q2, considering PX maintenance and polyester production increase, there are opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads. PTA processing spreads will moderately recover in the new year [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Domestic new ethylene - glycol plants are put into operation, and overseas plants are shutting down. Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. In Q2, there are expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term outlook is under pressure due to capacity growth [27]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises have high production loads and low inventories. Downstream orders are weak, and prices follow the raw material. Bottle - chip production has decreased, and processing spreads have recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [28]. Glass - Glass prices declined due to new ignition plans. The industry is in a state of inventory reduction, but supply may increase slightly. Processing orders are weak, and the market may enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation period. It is advisable to consider long - buying opportunities when the price drops to around 1,000 yuan [29]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai raw - material prices decline. Natural - rubber supply is decreasing, and demand is gradually recovering. Synthetic - rubber supply is increasing, and inventory trends are different. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [30]. Soda Ash - Soda ash is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure. Production may decline slightly in the short term, but long - term supply pressure is large. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies and wait and see when the price drops to the cost level [31]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day. South American weather has improved, increasing the probability of ENSO neutrality. US soybean exports have strengthened. In China, soybean crushing is expected to increase in January. It is necessary to pay attention to US soybean exports and South American weather [32]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil export data shows an increase, and production shows a decrease, which is beneficial for inventory reduction. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand for US biodiesel. The overall outlook for soybean and palm oil is an oscillating range [33]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - China and Canada have reached a preliminary arrangement on trade issues. If the import policy of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal improves as expected before March 1, it is expected to drive purchases. The short - term view on rapeseed products is bearish [34]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are oscillating. Policy - driven auction results have a guiding effect on prices. The supply of grassroots grain sources is tight, and high prices suppress demand. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and the spot market [35]. Corn - Snow in Northeast China boosts the bullish sentiment, and transportation of grassroots grain is difficult. Corn prices in Northeast China and northern ports are strong. However, increased auctions by state and local reserves may form pressure. Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [36]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the sentiment of live - pig futures changed significantly. After a weekend increase in prices, the futures prices dropped in the afternoon. The short - term rebound may be over. The industry capacity is showing signs of contraction, and pig prices are expected to reach a low point in the first half of next year [37]. Eggs - After the New Year's Day, egg spot prices have been strengthening. The futures prices have followed the spot, but on Monday, the futures prices dropped significantly. In the long - term, the inventory of laying hens is expected to decline, and it is advisable to adopt a long - buying strategy on dips [38]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to correct. After the previous rise, the positive factors have been mostly reflected. Downstream demand is average, and the reduction in Xinjiang's planting area needs further observation. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [39]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. India's sugar production is progressing rapidly, while Thailand's is slow. In China, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Guangxi's production is slow, but there is a strong expectation of an increase in the 2025/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [40]. Apples - Futures prices have corrected. Spot market transactions for the Spring Festival are increasing, but the quality of apples is poor, and the high purchase price and strong reluctance to sell may affect inventory reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to future demand [41]. Wood - Futures prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease in the short term, and demand has increased compared to the same period last year. Low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices were basically flat. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand. Inventory is accumulating, and the price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing. Paper mills purchase pulp for immediate needs. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [43]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, China's A - share indices had mixed performance, and futures indices mostly rose. The geopolitical situation has increased the risk - aversion sentiment. The stock - index trend is expected to change from a one - way increase to an oscillatingly strong trend, with a slower upward slope. It is necessary to pay attention to the transition from liquidity - driven to profit - driven and geopolitical impacts [44]. Treasury Bonds - On January 19, 2026, 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The first structural "interest - rate cut" of the year was implemented. The central bank adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial - housing loans and carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The money market is gradually becoming loose, but the short - term downward space for interest rates may be limited during the tax - payment period [45].
综合晨报-20260120
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2026-01-20 02:42