银河期货每日早盘观察-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its volatile consolidation, with the performance of the stock index futures differentiating. The market sentiment is affected by various factors such as high - level stocks and regulatory policies [20][21]. - In the agricultural product sector, the supply of protein meal still has pressure, the international sugar market is weak, the oil and fat sector maintains a volatile trend, and the prices of different agricultural products are affected by factors like supply and demand, weather, and policies [24][27][32]. - In the black metal sector, the steel price is likely to maintain a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, and the double - coke and iron ore are expected to run weakly, while the ferro - alloy has strong bottom support [55][59][61]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals like gold and silver reach new highs due to the escalation of disputes between the US and Europe, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and inventory [70][71][79]. - In the shipping sector, the container shipping market is in a low - season, and the freight rate is controversial. The market is waiting for new drivers [113]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the crude oil market is in a stalemate, and the prices of other chemical products are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply and demand, and geopolitics [117][120]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The stock index shows differentiation. After a slight decline in the opening, it fluctuated higher. The performance of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes was strong. The stock index futures also showed differentiation. The future market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [17][20][21]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term volatility, box operation, grid operation for single - side trading; IM\IC long 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; double - selling strategy for options [21]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Supply and Demand: The overall supply and demand of US soybeans are relatively loose, and the domestic soybean meal cost side still has pressure. Although the short - term supply may decline and the demand is good, there is still pressure in the medium and long term [24]. - Trading Strategy: Short - side thinking for single - side trading; MRM spread widening for arbitrage; selling wide - straddle strategy for options [24]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market Condition: The international sugar market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, and the domestic sugar price is weakly following. The cost side provides some support, but there is also sales pressure [27]. - Trading Strategy: Observe for the domestic short - term main contract; observe for arbitrage; sell put options [27]. 3.2.3 Oil and Fat Sector - Market Trend: The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, with no obvious trend. The supply of rapeseed may increase, and the palm oil is in the production - reduction period [32]. - Trading Strategy: High - throw and low - suck interval operation for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [32]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - Market Situation: The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short term but has pressure in the long term. The futures price is oscillating at a high level [35]. - Trading Strategy: Bullish thinking for the outer - market 03 corn after stabilization; short - term long for the 07 corn after correction; do long the 05 corn - starch spread when it is low for arbitrage [36]. 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Supply and Demand: The supply of live pigs is gradually increasing, and the overall price is declining. The overall inventory is high, and the supply pressure exists [37][38]. - Trading Strategy: Short - side thinking for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle strategy for options [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Market Status: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill has profits [41]. - Trading Strategy: Go long the 05 peanut when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [41]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Market Analysis: The demand for eggs has improved, and the price is stable with a slight increase. The supply is in the process of capacity reduction, but the upward space of the 03 contract is limited [44]. - Trading Strategy: Go long the 5 - far - month contract when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [45]. 3.2.8 Apples - Market Condition: The cold - storage inventory of apples is low, and the price is firm. The cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. The 5 - month contract price may rise if the demand remains normal [48]. - Trading Strategy: Partially take profits for the long position of the 5 - month contract; go short the 10 - month contract when it is high; do long the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract for arbitrage [49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market Trend: The cotton sales progress is fast, and the downstream stocking willingness increases. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in a short - term range [52]. - Trading Strategy: Observe for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market Situation: The demand for steel has support, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment and raw material prices affect the price [55]. - Trading Strategy: The steel price may be under pressure in the volatile market; short the coil - coal ratio when it is high and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread for arbitrage; observe for options [56]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - Market Analysis: The supply of double - coking is relatively loose, and it is expected to run weakly with oscillations. The Mongolian coal supply and the downstream inventory - building situation affect the price [58]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [59]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market Condition: The market expectation of iron ore is repeated, and the price is running weakly. The supply is loose, and the demand is expected to decline [61]. - Trading Strategy: Run weakly for single - side trading [62]. 3.3.4 Ferro - Alloy - Market Status: After adjustment, the ferro - alloy has strong bottom support. The supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon may decline, and the demand has support. The cost is relatively stable [64][65]. - Trading Strategy: Consider it as a long - position variety when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell put options when it is high [68]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market Trend: Due to the escalation of disputes between the US and Europe, gold and silver reach new highs. The short - term performance of silver is more volatile, and gold is relatively more stable [70][71][72]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long position of Shanghai gold against the 5 - day moving average; take profits for Shanghai silver conservatively or hold the long position cautiously for aggressive investors; do long the outer - market and short the inner - market for arbitrage; bullish call spread strategy for options [72][73]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market Analysis: The oscillation range of platinum and palladium converges. Platinum has stronger upward driving force, and the policy uncertainty still exists [74][75]. - Trading Strategy: Go long platinum when it is low for single - side trading; observe for palladium; observe for arbitrage and options [75]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market Condition: The short - term volatility of copper increases, and the long - term upward trend remains. The geopolitics, inventory, and consumption affect the price [77][79]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to profit protection and control positions for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [80]. 3.4.4 Alumina - Market Status: Alumina is expected to run weakly. The increase in warehouse receipts and the downward trend of cost put pressure on the price [83]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [84]. 3.4.5 Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Analysis: The risk - aversion sentiment rises again, and the aluminum price stabilizes. The geopolitics, tariff policy, and inventory affect the price [86]. - Trading Strategy: The aluminum price stabilizes and rebounds for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [87]. 3.4.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Condition: The market sentiment is repeated, and it stabilizes with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price [89]. - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided [89]. 3.4.7 Zinc - Market Analysis: The price of zinc is affected by capital sentiment. The short - term price may return to the fundamental situation, with a downward pressure and then an interval oscillation [91][93]. - Trading Strategy: Observe the support at 17000 - 17200 and go long lightly when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [93]. 3.4.8 Lead - Market Status: The price of lead is affected by capital sentiment. Similar to zinc, it may run weakly and then oscillate in an interval [95]. - Trading Strategy: Observe the support at 17000 - 17200 and go long lightly when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [95]. 3.4.9 Nickel - Market Analysis: The nickel price adjusts with non - ferrous metals. The regulatory attitude is stable, and the long - term trend of non - ferrous metals is positive [97]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the overall atmosphere of the non - ferrous metal sector for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [98]. 3.4.10 Stainless Steel - Market Condition: Stainless steel follows the nickel price. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is tight. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [100]. - Trading Strategy: Follow the nickel price for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage [101]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis: Due to the sudden supply reduction news, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. The supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [102]. - Trading Strategy: Close the short position and go long when it is low for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [103]. 3.4.12 Polysilicon - Market Status: The price is weakly stable. The actual transaction price may be the key to the disk. It is recommended to observe in the short term [104]. - Trading Strategy: Observe [104]. 3.4.13 Lithium Carbonate - Market Analysis: The price is running at a high level. The market may turn from inventory - building to de - stocking, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support level after the volatility decreases [107]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for the volatility to return to the normal level for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [108]. 3.4.14 Tin - Market Condition: Due to the increasing risk of trade friction between Europe and the United States, the tin price rises with non - ferrous metals. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical risks need to be concerned [109][110]. - Trading Strategy: Observe the impact of trade friction on the tin price for single - side trading; observe for options [111]. 3.5 Shipping Sector - Container Shipping: The spot freight rate is in the process of peaking and falling. The market has different views on the strength of the upcoming peak - shipping season. The long - term recovery of the European line is still difficult. It is recommended to observe for single - side trading and do long the 6 - 10 spread when it is low for arbitrage [113][114][115]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market Situation: The trading is light, and the market is in a stalemate. The international oil price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage and options [117]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate widely for single - side trading [117]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market Analysis: The raw material premium rises, and the asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to observe for options [120]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; pay attention to the BU4 - 6 positive spread for arbitrage [121]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market Status: The cost is oscillating, and the supply rhythm of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be concerned. The price may be volatile due to geopolitical factors. It is recommended to observe for options [122][123][124]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate strongly, be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; pay attention to the FU59 positive spread for arbitrage [124]. 3.6.4 Natural Gas - Market Analysis: The TTF/JKM price falls from a high level, and the HH rebounds after an over - decline. The short - term price is affected by weather and geopolitics, and the long - term price center may move down. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage [126][127][128]. - Trading Strategy: Continue to hold the short position of TTF and JKM in the third quarter, add positions aggressively for single - side trading; long - term roll - selling of out - of - the - money call options for TTF or JKM [128]. 3.6.5 LPG - Market Condition: The chemical demand is marginally weakening. The cost support weakens, and the supply increases slightly while the demand decreases slightly. The price may be under pressure [129]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; observe for arbitrage and options [129]. 3.6.6 PX&PTA - Market Analysis: The polyester production cut increases, and the load decreases rapidly. The PX supply is high, and the PTA is affected by the cost and downstream demand. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage and options [132]. - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided [132]. 3.6.7 BZ&EB - Market Status: The pure benzene is expected to have a supply reduction, and the styrene has an inventory - de - stocking expectation. The price of pure benzene may be strong, and the styrene inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage and options [134][136]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate strongly for single - side trading [136]. 3.6.8 Ethylene Glycol - Market Analysis: The seasonal inventory - building is obvious. The supply is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage [137]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; sell call options [138]. 3.6.9 Short - Fiber - Market Condition: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weakening. The load may decrease, and the downstream is bearish. It is recommended to observe the implementation of the Spring Festival production - cut plan [140]. - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided [140]. 3.6.10 Bottle Chips - Market Analysis: The maintenance is accelerating. The production is expected to decrease, and the replenishment momentum may slow down. It is recommended to observe for arbitrage and options [142][144]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate widely for single - side trading [144]. 3.6.11 Propylene - Market Status: The supply pressure is relieved. The supply improvement is limited, and the production enterprise has a