申万期货品种策略日报：股指-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the combined effects of the technology cycle resonance, policy dividend release, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new phase driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds' allocation of Chinese assets under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - For IF contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts on the previous two days were 4737.00 (current month), 4725.80 (next month), 4723.20 (next quarter), and 4680.00 (alternate quarter). The previous day's closing prices were 4732.80, 4728.60, 4688.80, and 4633.80 respectively. The price changes were - 3.99, 5.00, - 30.40, and - 44.80. The trading volumes were 23746.00, 73045.00, 18164.00, and 5287.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were 38577.00, 139389.00, - 119648.00, and - 62607.00 [1] - Similar data were provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes [1] - The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were also presented, showing the differences between the next - month and current - month contracts [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - For the CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the index was 4734.46, with a trading volume of 267.61 billion lots and a total trading value of 6551.49 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 4731.87, with a trading volume of 325.28 billion lots and a total trading value of 7856.24 billion yuan. The increase rate was 0.05% [1] - Similar data were provided for the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including index points, trading volumes, total trading values, and increase rates [1] - The performance of different industries in the CSI 300 industry index was also shown, with some industries rising and others falling. For example, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries had positive growth rates, while the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had negative growth rates [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between futures and spot prices was calculated for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts against their corresponding spot indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000), showing the differences between futures and spot prices on the previous day and two days ago [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had different increase or decrease rates. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.30%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.70% [1] - Overseas indexes such as the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index also had different performance, with the Hang Seng Index decreasing by 1.05%, the Nikkei 225 decreasing by 0.65%, the S&P Index decreasing by 0.06%, and the DAX Index decreasing by 1.34% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's economic "report card" for 2025 was released. The GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the service industry's added value increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment decreasing by 17.2% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance will hold important press conferences today [2] - The tickets for the first day of the Spring Festival travel season went on sale on January 19, 2026. The Spring Festival travel season by railway will last from February 2 to March 13, with an expected 5.39 billion passenger trips, a 5% increase year - on - year. The civil aviation passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel season is expected to reach a record high of 95 million [2] - The US president announced tariff hikes on 8 countries, and the Chinese foreign ministry responded [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, with the goal of cultivating a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automotive, lithium - battery, photovoltaic, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expanding to traditional high - energy - consuming industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals by 2030 [2] - The housing price data of 70 large and medium - sized cities in December last year showed that the housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, with the year - on - year decline widening. In the second - hand housing market, all 70 cities' housing prices decreased month - on - month, with the decline in first - tier cities narrowing. In the new - housing market, the decline in first - tier cities also narrowed, and Shanghai was the only first - tier city where new - housing prices increased both month - on - month (0.2%) and year - on - year (4.8%) [2] - China successfully launched the 19th group of low - orbit satellites for the satellite internet. China Star Network has launched over 150 satellites, with a short - term goal of having 400 satellites in orbit by 2027 [2] - Domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted at 24:00 on January 20, with an expected increase of about 90 yuan per ton on January 21, which may be the first increase this year [2]