油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is strengthening, and domestic soybean meal prices are under pressure due to high inventory and expected high - yield in South America. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase rapeseed imports and put short - term pressure on rapeseed meal prices [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a strong and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil was weak. Strong exports and reduced production in Malaysia, along with lower tariffs, support palm oil prices. Favorable demand for US soybean oil due to biofuel policy expectations also provides support. However, the expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply due to the China - Canada economic and trade agreement weakens rapeseed oil prices and restricts short - term soybean and palm oil prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7996, 8648, and 8902 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 26, and - 161, and percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.30%, and - 3.15%. The closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2727, 2327, and 8844 respectively, with changes of 0, - 133, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.00%, - 5.41%, and 0.29% [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, and the M9 - 1 spread changing from - 179 to - 238 [1]. International Futures - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4027 (Ringgit/ton), 1056.25 (cents/bushel), 52.51 (cents/pound), and 289.90 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 77.0, 3.8, - 0.4, and 0.7, and percentage changes of 1.95%, 0.36%, - 0.76%, and 0.24% [1]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8530 and 8580 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8700, with no change. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9780 and 9830 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.71% and - 1.70% [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis and spreads of various varieties have also changed compared to the previous values, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 534, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [1]. Import and Profit - The current import profits of Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, US West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseed are - 342, - 264, - 71, - 217, 270, and 387 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 27,485, 1,148, 1,942, 32,440, 84, and 0 respectively, with some varieties showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - Palm Oil: It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4,125 Ringgit per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 1,975 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.61%, while Indonesia's production is expected to reach a record 5,120 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.39% [3]. - Soybeans: As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year. In the third week of January 2026, Brazil shipped a total of 130.74 tons of soybeans, with an average daily shipment of 11.89 tons, a 144.56% increase compared to January last year [3].