资讯早间报：隔夜夜盘市场走势-20260120

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices rose collectively, with the US crude oil main contract up 0.15% at $59.43 per barrel and the Brent crude oil main contract up 0.08% at $64.18 per barrel [4]. - London base metals rose across the board, with LME tin up 3.87% at $49840.0 per ton, LME nickel up 3.23% at $18145.0 per ton, etc. [4]. - As of 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts fell. Coke, glass, etc. fell more than 2%, while palm oil and PVC rose nearly 1% [4]. - As of 2:30, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 1.35%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 5.88%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.52% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - In 2025, China's GDP was 1401879 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively [8]. - The IMF raised China's economic growth rate forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and also raised the forecast for 2026. The world economy is expected to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [8]. - As of January 19, 2026, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (Europe route) was 1954.19 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In December 2025, China's crude oil imports were 5597000 tons, up 17.4% year - on - year; refined oil imports were 399000 tons, up 21.1% year - on - year; and refined oil exports were 537000 tons, up 43.6% year - on - year [11]. - India's Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd is considering buying Venezuelan oil and stopping importing Russian oil [11]. Metal Futures - In December 2025, China's polysilicon imports were 1873 tons, down 42.8% year - on - year; alumina exports were 210000 tons, up 9.3% year - on - year [14]. - PT Vale Indonesia may face a shortage of mining production quota for its new smelter [14]. - In December 2025, China's primary aluminum output was 3870000 tons, up 3.0% year - on - year; ten non - ferrous metals output was 7210000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year [14]. - From January 21, 2026, the daily price limit of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin standards for speculative and hedging trades will be adjusted to 13% and 12% respectively [15][43]. - Chile's copper output is expected to peak at 6.06 million tons in 2033 and then slow down to 5.86 million tons in 2034 [16]. Black - series Futures - Yijinhuoluoqi Dongbo Coal Mine was ordered to suspend production for 2 days due to major safety hazards [19]. - From January 12 - 18, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 28977000 tons, a decrease of 1173000 tons from the previous period [19]. - In 2025, real estate development enterprises' funds in place decreased by 13.4% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 10.0% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year [20]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, down 10.3% year - on - year; coal output was 437.03 million tons, down 1.0% year - on - year [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian rapeseed growers, but key details need clarification [22]. - It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4125 ringgit per ton, down 2.55% year - on - year; Malaysia's output will be 19.75 million tons, down 2.61% year - on - year; and Indonesia's output will reach a record 51.2 million tons, up 0.39% year - on - year [24]. - In 2025, China's total grain output was 714.88 million tons, up 1.2% year - on - year; pig, cattle, sheep, and poultry meat output was 100.72 million tons, up 4.2% year - on - year [24]. - In January, the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills was below 2 million tons, and the monthly crushing volume is expected to be about 8 million tons [24]. - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year [25]. - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, and the total supply will reach 183.79 million tons, up 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Financial Market Financial - The Supreme People's Procuratorate deployed to safeguard economic and financial security and punish securities crimes [29]. - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.29% at 4114 points [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points [29]. - A total of 451 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 156 pre - announcing good news [30]. - Insurance funds' investment preferences may affect the market style, and the AI and non - ferrous metal sectors have investment opportunities [32]. - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau fined and banned "Jinyongrong" from the securities market for market manipulation [32]. - A fund manager's different operations between personal and fund accounts have sparked controversy [32]. - Rumors about false accounts for Hong Kong stock IPO subscriptions are untrue [32]. - Yunbao Intelligence launched its A - share IPO process, aiming to be the first domestic DPU stock [33]. Industry - Five departments jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate them in multiple industries by 2027 and expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries by 2030 [34]. - In December 2025, housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally declined month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [34]. - China successfully launched the 19th group of satellite Internet low - orbit satellites [35]. - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise on January 21, 2026 [36]. - Micron Technology warned of a shortage of memory chips due to the surging demand for high - end semiconductors in AI infrastructure [36]. - High - end spirits demand has shrunk, leading to inventory backlogs and production shutdowns in the industry [36]. Overseas - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3% and also raised the forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [37]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit to discuss Trump's tariff measures and consider counter - measures [37]. - Germany restarted electric vehicle purchase subsidies of 1500 - 6000 euros, open to all car manufacturers [38]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae will dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026 [38]. - Ueno Zoo in Tokyo will return the giant panda twins "Xiaoxiao" and "Leilei" to China [39]. International Stock Markets - European stock markets fell across the board, with the German DAX index down 1.34%, the French CAC40 index down 1.78%, and the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.39% [40]. - Asian stock markets had a mixed performance. The Japanese market had a "double - kill" of stocks and bonds, while the South Korean Composite Index hit a new high [40]. - Norway's central bank investment management company significantly reduced its holdings of London small and medium - cap stocks [40]. - US investor Elliott opposed Toyota Industries' privatization proposal [41]. Commodity - The price limit and margin standards of lithium carbonate futures contracts on the GZEX will be adjusted from January 21, 2026 [43]. - International oil prices rose, and London base metals also increased [43]. Bond - The domestic bond market was weak, with most treasury bond futures closing down [44]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 54 points to 6.9636 at 16:30 on Monday [45]. - The US dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.05, and non - US currencies mostly rose [47]. - Hedge funds increased their short positions on the yen before the Japanese election [47]. - JPMorgan Chase downgraded the ratings of emerging market currencies and the South African rand [47]. 4. Upcoming Events - There will be 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the Chinese central bank's open market at 09:20 [49]. - Press conferences will be held by the State Council Information Office at 10:00 and 15:00 [49]. - Executives from BlackRock, the EU Commission, the UK Treasury, Canada, etc. will speak at the World Economic Forum [49]. - The 40th AAAI Artificial Intelligence Conference and the 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will be held [49]. - Netflix and 3M will release their financial reports [49].