国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including price trends, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each product [2]. 3. Summary by Product PX, PTA, MEG - PX: In the short - term, it is in a shock market due to weak costs. Future supply is expected to be loose, and attention should be paid to hedging strategies such as long PX short PTA and long MX short PX [2][10]. - PTA: Focus on reducing processing fees. Future supply and demand are both weak, and it will enter a stockpiling pattern. The downside of the unilateral price is limited, and its valuation depends on oil prices [2][11]. - MEG: The downside space of the valuation is limited. It is in a range - shock market. Although the supply pressure is large, the basis and spread may fluctuate due to factors such as coal - based load maintenance and overseas geopolitical impacts [2][11]. Rubber - It is in a weak - shock state. As of January 18, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased, and the market sentiment was affected [12][13]. Synthetic Rubber - It will operate weakly in the short - term. Although the static downside space is limited due to cost support, the dynamic situation depends on whether the decline of butadiene can open up the downside space [17][19]. LLDPE - The production of standard products has increased, and spot trading has weakened. The cost of raw materials has increased, but the downstream demand is weak, and there is medium - term supply - demand pressure [20][21]. PP - The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. However, the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [22][23]. Caustic Soda - There is still pressure in the trend. Before the Spring Festival, there is pressure to destock, and the price continues to decline. The far - month contract may face cost increases and supply reduction expectations [25][27]. Pulp - It is in a weak - shock state. The downstream demand is weak, and the high domestic inventory leads to a bearish fundamental pattern [30][33]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The supply - side pressure is not large, but the downstream demand is weak, and export orders support the rigid demand to some extent [35][36]. Methanol - It will operate in a shock manner. The short - term decline is due to the weakening of the commodity index, and the medium - term fundamentals may support the price. The upper and lower price limits are restricted [38][42]. Urea - It is in a shock - consolidation state. The short - term price may correct, but the decline is limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations. The medium - term trend is still strong [43][46]. Styrene - It will fluctuate in the short - term. The short - term export is strong, and the downstream restocking cycle has started, but the physical pressure of pure benzene is still large [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The production of enterprises is stable, and the downstream purchases as needed. The short - term price is adjusted steadily [49][50]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The downward driving force is gradually being realized. - Propylene: After the rapid increase in spot prices, the upward driving force has weakened [53]. PVC - It is in a weak - shock state. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term, and the core logic is to short the chlor - alkali profit [60][61]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It is in a narrow - range shock, and short - term fluctuations are narrowing. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is in a night - session adjustment trend, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [63]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a temporary shock market. The supply - demand relationship is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, geopolitics, and demand. Different contracts have different trading strategies [65][81]. Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short Fiber: It is in a short - term shock market, and the processing fee is running at a low level. - Bottle Chip: It is in a short - term shock market [84][85]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to close short positions opportunistically. The market price is stable, the new orders are limited, and the dealer's inventory reduction is slow [87][88]. Pure Benzene - It will fluctuate mainly in the short - term. The port inventory has decreased, and the spot price has increased [92][93].