宝城期货原油早报-20260120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. - The core logic is that geopolitical factors have weakened, and the crude oil market has returned to a situation dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals, so it is expected to operate weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. 3.2 Price Calculation and Strength Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is yesterday's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong [3]. - The concepts of strongly/weakly only apply to intraday views, not to short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.3 Crude Oil Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks have been frequently signaled by US President Trump, with Greenland and Mexico being potential targets. Although the signal of a暂缓 strike on Iran has weakened short - term geopolitical risks, the US - Iran conflict remains a major focus [5]. - The crude oil futures market has returned to a situation dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic crude oil futures price showed an oscillatory and weak trend in the night trading on Monday and is expected to maintain a weak pattern on Tuesday [5].