宝城期货国债期货早报-20260120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly oscillatory consolidation as the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The 2025 GDP growth rate was 5.0%, meeting the annual target, but the Q4 GDP growth and social consumer retail growth slowed down, indicating strong macro - economic resilience but concerns on the demand side [5]. - The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there are still expectations for an interest rate cut in the future under the Fed's move towards a loose cycle. However, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5].