2026年01月20日：期货市场交易指引-20260120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Exiting long positions on copper on rallies; strengthening observation on aluminum; observing nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish sideways for silver; range - bound for lithium carbonate [1][11][13][17][19] - Energy and Chemicals: Buying on dips for PVC; temporary observation for caustic soda and soda ash; range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; bearish sideways for polyolefins [1][20][22][23][28][30] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Sideways adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; bearish sideways for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Short - term selling on rallies for near - term hog contracts, cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; hedging post - holiday 02 and 03 egg contracts on rallies; short - term cautious about chasing high for corn, hedging on rallies for grain holders; bullish on near - term soybean meal contracts, bearish on far - term contracts; bearish sideways for fats and oils [1][33][37][39][41] Core Views - Global geopolitical events, such as Trump's tariff policies and military threat to Iran, along with changes in Fed chairmanship expectations, impact market sentiment and asset prices [5][12][13][17][19] - Central bank policies, like interest rate adjustments, influence the performance of stocks, bonds, and other financial products [5][6] - Supply and demand fundamentals, including production, inventory, and consumption, are the main factors determining the price trends of various commodities [8][9][11][12][14][15][17][19][22][23][26][27][35][36][38][39][40][41][43][44][46] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Affected by geopolitical events and central bank policies, expected to trade sideways in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips [5] - Government Bonds: After the central bank's interest rate adjustment, the bond market shows a deep "V" trend, expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Due to weak demand and high inventory, prices are under pressure, suggesting short - term trading [8] - Rebar: With neutral valuation and short - term balanced supply and demand, it is expected to trade sideways in the short - term, with range trading as the main strategy [8] - Glass: With weak demand and increasing mid - stream inventory, it is expected to trade bearishly sideways, suggesting selling on rallies [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations, it is expected to trade sideways at a high level, suggesting exiting long positions on rallies [11][12][13] - Aluminum: With stable supply and weakening demand, it is expected to trade sideways at a high level, suggesting strengthening observation [14] - Nickel: Affected by Indonesian policies and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to trade sideways, suggesting observation [15] - Tin: With tight supply and stable demand, it is expected to trade sideways, suggesting range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [16][17] - Silver and Gold: Affected by geopolitical events and Fed policies, they are expected to trade sideways with a bullish bias, suggesting holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold [17][19] - Lithium Carbonate: With supply - demand balance and cost factors, it is expected to trade range - bound [19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With low valuation and potential policy support, the bottom may have been reached, suggesting buying on dips [20][22] - Caustic Soda: With weak demand and high supply, it is expected to trade sideways at a low level, suggesting temporary observation [23] - Soda Ash: With supply - demand imbalance and cost support, it is suggested to temporarily exit and observe [30] - Styrene, Rubber, Urea, and Methanol: All expected to trade sideways, with range trading as the main strategy [22][24][26][27] - Polyolefins: With weakening demand and cost support, they are expected to trade bearishly sideways [28] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: After a long - term uptrend, they are expected to adjust sideways in the short - term, with a bullish long - term outlook [30] - Apples and Jujubes: With slow sales in the market, they are expected to trade bearishly sideways [31][32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: With high supply pressure in the short - term and potential capacity reduction in the long - term, short - term selling on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness on far - term contracts are suggested [33][36] - Eggs: With high valuation in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term, hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies is suggested [37][39] - Corn: With balanced short - term supply and demand and a looser long - term supply - demand pattern, short - term caution about chasing high and hedging on rallies for grain holders are suggested [39][40] - Soybean Meal: With a bearish long - term outlook and a relatively tight near - term supply - demand situation, different trading strategies for near - term and far - term contracts are suggested [41] - Fats and Oils: Expected to open lower and trade bearishly sideways, suggesting observing the narrowing spread strategies for rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean 05 contracts [41][47]