聚酯数据日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market remains strong, driven by speculative funds pre - positioning long positions for 2026. Current support factors go beyond pure financial drivers. The decline in gasoline blending profit makes the reforming unit close to the break - even point between aromatics extraction and gasoline production. The PX - MX spread has expanded to over $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has reached $370, improving PX production economics. Korean factories plan to increase production in January but are limited by some reforming unit overhauls. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand is falling, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a negative impact on PTA. Although PTA consumption remains high, mainstream polyester factories are conducting early overhauls and selling PTA raw materials, causing the basis to weaken rapidly [2]. - For ethylene glycol, overseas ethylene glycol unit overhaul plans are increasing. Two sets of MEG units in Taiwan, China, with a total capacity of 720,000 tons per year, plan to shut down next month due to poor profitability, and Saudi Arabian ethylene glycol units have started scheduled overhauls. The inventory at East China ethylene glycol ports remains at 730,000 tons. Against the background of the continuous decline in coal prices, ethylene glycol prices lack effective support. With the successive commissioning of new units, market supply pressure is increasing. The return of coal - based ethylene glycol units exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and ethylene glycol prices may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Comparison - INE crude oil price dropped from 438.8 yuan/barrel on January 16th to 437.4 yuan/barrel on January 19th, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC spread increased from 1,829.2 yuan/ton to 1,851.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.17 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.5736 to 1.5824, an increase of 0.0088 [2]. - CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 879, and the PX - naphtha spread also remained unchanged at 331. The PTA main - contract futures price increased from 5,018 yuan/ton to 5,030 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price increased from 4,960 yuan/ton to 4,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee increased from 309.6 yuan/ton to 321.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.8 yuan/ton. The PTA on - paper processing fee increased from 367.6 yuan/ton to 381.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.8 yuan/ton. The PTA main - contract basis increased from - 67 to - 63, an increase of 4. The PTA warehouse - receipt quantity decreased from 104,318 to 104,312, a decrease of 6 [2]. - The MEG main - contract futures price decreased from 3,796 yuan/ton to 3,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from - 153.29 yuan/ton to - 159.48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.2 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 3,665 yuan/ton to 3,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton. The MEG main - contract basis increased from - 128 to - 120, an increase of 8 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - The PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 85.82%. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 75.63%. The MEG start - up rate decreased from 60.82% to 60.58%, a decrease of 0.24%. The polyester load decreased from 86.61% to 85.83%, a decrease of 0.78% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Filament - The price of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6,690. The POY cash flow increased from - 29 to - 28, an increase of 1. The price of FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 6,920. The FDY cash flow increased from - 299 to - 298, an increase of 1. The price of DTY150D/48F increased from 7,830 to 7,850, an increase of 20. The DTY cash flow increased from - 89 to - 68, an increase of 21. The polyester filament sales rate increased from 40% to 46%, an increase of 6% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber increased from 6,405 to 6,450, an increase of 45. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 36 to 82, an increase of 46. The polyester staple fiber sales rate decreased from 73% to 57%, a decrease of 16% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Chip - The price of semi - bright polyester chip increased from 5,735 to 5,740, an increase of 5. The polyester chip cash flow increased from - 84 to - 78, an increase of 6. The polyester chip sales rate increased from 83% to 84%, an increase of 1% [2]. Device Maintenance Information - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to be shut down for maintenance as planned tomorrow. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China is expected to shut down in the next two days and is initially expected to restart in early March [3].