Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. With both supply and demand decreasing, combined with the upward price transmission effects of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is evident. There is short-term potential for demand growth, which will boost prices. The upward price limit depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward limit is restricted by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may stimulate short-term polysilicon exports, but it may also deplete medium- and long-term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the hope for coordinated price support was dashed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with downstream production capacity accelerating to clear. In the short term, attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the medium to long term, focus on the recovery of demand and inventory clearance progress [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,605 yuan/ton and closed at 8,845 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton (1.61%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 235,167 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 18, 2026, was 11,283 lots, a change of 144 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week [1]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. This week, polysilicon production cuts continued, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon maintained a staggered peak emission reduction policy and continued self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable to slightly weak. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum to the demand side [1]. Supply - On the same day, a major factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts. The planned production in January is expected to decline significantly, which will positively impact the industrial silicon price. If the production cuts are effective, the supply of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and the inventory will shift from accumulation to depletion [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated upward, opening at 50,200 yuan/ton and closing at 50,505 yuan/ton, a 0.63% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 44,571 lots (46,220 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 12,235 lots [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 321,000 tons, a 6.29% change from the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW, a - 5.53% change from the previous period, polysilicon weekly production was 21,500 tons, a - 9.66% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer production was 10.83GW, a 2.95% change from the previous period [3]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece [4]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [6]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [6]. - Recently, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the minimum opening volume of the polysilicon futures 2701 contract, changing the minimum opening order quantity from 1 lot to 10 lots. The reduction of speculative funds makes the market fluctuations more in line with the supply - demand fundamentals, stabilizes the hedging effect, and strengthens the influence of industrial customers on prices [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to maintain a weak oscillation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]
新能源及有色金属日报：双硅同步上行，减产累库持续博弈-20260120
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-20 03:03