燃料油日报：多空因素交织，市场驱动暂不明朗-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: No rating [2] - Cross - period: No rating [2] - Spot - futures: No rating [2] - Options: No rating [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market drivers are currently unclear with a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the cost - side drive for FU and LU prices has weakened again. The overall contradiction in the fuel oil market is limited. There are resistances above and supports below the market. The Iranian situation is uncertain and may repeatedly disturb the market [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradiction and drive are limited. The increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria will bring local pressure, while the high premium of gasoline and diesel will support the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.12% at 2,538 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 3,060 yuan/ton [1]. - The Iranian situation is currently under control, not affecting oil supply, and the geopolitical premium has declined, weakening the cost - side drive for FU and LU prices [1]. - The fuel oil market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors with limited overall contradictions. Short - term attention should be paid to the drag of the decline in the cracking spread in the US Gulf on the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets and the potential increase in downstream refinery demand [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria, especially Kuwait's high shipments in January, will bring local pressure. The high premium of gasoline and diesel will support the market [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy [2] - Cross - period: No strategy [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2]