FICC日报：指数走势分化-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The large funds intend to cool down the market through heavy - holding stocks and ETFs, resulting in a decline in the overall trading volume of the two markets. However, the participation enthusiasm of the remaining funds is still relatively high, leading to the divergence of the four major index trends. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes maintain a high - level shock pattern, while the other two indexes are suppressed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the service industry's added value increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 17.2% [1] - In the overseas market, the U.S. stock market was closed due to the Martin Luther King Memorial Day. The three major European stock indexes closed down across the board due to intensified geopolitical risks and weak European economic data. The German DAX index fell 1.34% to 24,959.06 points, while the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.6% to 49,442.44 points [1] - In the A - share spot market, the three major indexes showed a divergent trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4,114 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. Most sector indexes rose, with the basic chemical, petroleum and petrochemical, power equipment, and automobile industries leading the gains, while the computer, communication, and banking industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 2.7 trillion yuan [1] - In the futures market, the current - month contract of IH was at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IH and IF decreased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The large funds use heavy - holding stocks and ETFs to cool down the market, causing the overall trading volume of the two markets to decline. However, the enthusiasm of other funds remains high, resulting in the divergence of the four major index trends. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes maintain a high - level shock pattern, and the other two indexes are suppressed [2] Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 19, 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 4,114.00 (+0.29%), the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14,294.05 (+0.09%), the ChiNext Index was at 3,337.61 (-0.70%), the CSI 300 Index was at 4,734.46 (+0.05%), the SSE 50 Index was at 3,075.94 (-0.12%), the CSI 500 Index was at 8,287.95 (+0.67%), and the CSI 1000 Index was at 8,265.65 (+0.40%) [12] - The charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume of IF was 120,242 (-34,310), the open interest was 290,666 (-4,289); the trading volume of IH was 46,533 (-18,564), the open interest was 91,413 (-1,610); the trading volume of IC was 166,526 (-21,181), the open interest was 319,424 (+6,196); the trading volume of IM was 206,367 (-35,971), the open interest was 380,256 (+1,234) [14] - The charts show the open interest, latest open - interest ratio, and foreign net open - interest quantity of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5][15][17] - The table shows the basis of stock index futures. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 1.66 (-6.79), and that of IH was 0.46 (-1.18) [39] - The table shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures. For example, for the "next - month - current - month" spread of IF, the current value was - 4.20 (+7.00) [45]