农产品日报：市场流通充足，豆粕维持震荡-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the inventory has declined significantly but remains above one million tons, higher than the same period last year. The good situation of imported soybean auctions has led to a relatively loose supply in the domestic market recently. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure will continue. Attention should be paid to the South American soybean harvest and US soybean export [2] - For corn, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking has gradually begun. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased. The inventory of north - south ports has also slightly increased, but the current price at the southern port is high, and feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment, still mainly purchasing on demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2727 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 1.51% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 3070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2420 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of January 14, the sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Argentina was 93.9% complete, up from 88.3% a week ago. The 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to reach 179.28 million tons, 520,000 tons higher than the November forecast [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, with no change; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2555 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: As of January 14, the planting area of the 2025/26 corn crop in Argentina was 91.7% of the total expected area of 7.8 million hectares, up from 89.1% a week ago. Russia's seaborne grain exports in December were 4.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total seaborne grain exports in the first half of this year dropped to nearly 30 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [3] Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: The supply in the domestic market is relatively loose. The high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure will continue [2] - Corn: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking has started, but feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current inventory is lower than the historical average [4][5] Strategy - Soybean Meal: Cautiously bearish [3] - Corn: Neutral [6]