Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 opened at 147,600 yuan/ton and closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, with a -3.83% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 329,126 lots, and the open interest was 411,331 lots, compared with 416,133 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 3,100 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,698 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 146,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of -7,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 142,000 - 153,000 yuan/ton, also a change of -7,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,040 US dollars/ton, a change of -45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - After the position limit policy last week, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on January 21, 2026, the daily price limit for lithium carbonate futures contracts would be adjusted to 11%, the margin standard for speculative trading to 13%, and the margin standard for hedging trading to 12%. Multiple regulatory policies continued to suppress the speculative enthusiasm for lithium carbonate, and the main contract continued to decline with reduced positions [1]. - The spot inventory was 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,727 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,345 tons; the downstream inventory was 35,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 888 tons; and other inventories were 54,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons. Due to the recent sharp decline in prices, the downstream replenishment demand is expected to be gradually released [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to fluctuate widely in the range of 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the risk of a callback continues to rise. There is a possibility of testing the support level of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Before April, the export tax - refund bonus still supports the demand to some extent, but from late January to February, there will be an overlap of upstream maintenance and the traditional downstream off - season, and the demand may weaken marginally. Inventory changes will be the key indicator [3]. - For unilateral trading, conduct short - term range operations and sell hedging on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - delivery spread trading and cross - variety trading [3].
新能源及有色金属日报：调控持续加码，碳酸锂继续回调-20260120
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-20 03:09