铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances cause gold and silver to reach new highs, and China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025. The short - term risk appetite may continue to decline overseas, while the A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a still positive medium - term trend [2][3] - The risk of a tariff war due to the Greenland issue boosts the prices of precious metals, and they are expected to remain strong in the short term [4][5] - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term due to rising geopolitical risks and supply shortages [6][7] - The aluminum price is under high - level shock and adjustment due to rising risk aversion and supply pressure [8][9] - The alumina price continues to be weak due to supply surplus and cost decline expectations [11] - The casting aluminum market is in a state of weak supply and demand and is in shock adjustment [12] - The zinc price is in a sideways shock as the long - short situation is in a stalemate [13][14] - The lead price is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand [15][16] - The tin price will have a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [17] - The steel price is in shock adjustment due to weak fundamentals [18] - The iron ore price is under shock pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [19] - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure [20] - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term as the Brazilian harvest progresses and the relationship between China and Canada eases [21][22] - The palm oil price is expected to be in shock operation, considering the changes in production and demand data [23] Group 3: Summaries According to Different Commodities Metals - Precious Metals: On Monday, gold and silver prices continued to rise to new highs. Geopolitical unrest and tariff war risks are the main factors. The short - term is expected to remain strong [4][5] - Copper: On Monday, the main contract of copper futures fluctuated. Geopolitical risks and supply shortages make the short - term price maintain high - level shock [6][7] - Aluminum: On Monday, the main contract of aluminum futures closed at 24090 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. High - level shock adjustment is due to risk aversion and supply pressure [8][9] - Alumina: On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2733 yuan/ton, down 1.19%. The price continues to be weak due to supply surplus and cost decline expectations [11] - Cast Aluminum: On Monday, the main contract of casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 22890 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand and shock adjustment [12] - Zinc: On Monday, the main contract of zinc futures fluctuated narrowly. The long - short situation is in a stalemate, and the price is in sideways shock [13][14] - Lead: On Monday, the main contract of lead futures fluctuated weakly. The price is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand [15][16] - Tin: On Monday, the main contract of tin futures stabilized and fluctuated. It will have a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [17] Steel and Minerals - Steel (Screw and Coil): On Monday, steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. The market is in the off - season of demand, and the fundamentals are weak [18] - Iron Ore: On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted. High inventory and weak demand make the price under shock pressure [19] - Coking Coal and Coke: On Monday, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and adjusted. Supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: On Monday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.26%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 2.37%. The Brazilian harvest progresses, and the short - term is expected to be weakly volatile [21][22] - Palm Oil: On Monday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.35%. Considering production and demand data changes, the short - term is expected to be in shock operation [23]