日度策略参考-20260120

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The policy aims for a slow - bull trend in the stock index market, with short - term shock adjustment space expected to be limited, and long - term bulls can choose opportunities to lay out [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has reminded of interest rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Most commodities are in a state of shock, with different influencing factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and macro - sentiment [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The stock index was strong in the first half of the week, then adjusted with policy "cooling" of speculative sentiment. The policy advocates a slow - bull trend, and long - term bulls can choose opportunities to lay out [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has reminded of interest rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With the US suspension of key mineral taxation, short - term copper price concerns ease, and it tends to run in high - level shock [1]. - Aluminum: With weak macro - and industrial - driven factors, aluminum prices have fallen from high levels [1]. - Alumina: With strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market, the price is under pressure but is near the cost line, expected to run in shock [1]. - Zinc: With a stable cost center and inventory pressure, zinc prices fluctuate in a range under repeated macro - sentiment [1]. - Nickel: Despite a 2026 RKAB target of about 260 million wet tons in Indonesia, the supply remains tight. Global inventory accumulation may restrict price increases. Short - term prices are in high - level shock, and short - term long - positions on dips are recommended [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with energy - consumption control and anti - involution possibly disturbing supply [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The short - term market sentiment is warming, but the medium - term supply is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is hard to judge, and fluctuations intensify after a large increase [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the rumor of Indonesia not implementing B50, it is expected to enter shock consolidation, waiting for positive drivers [1]. - Soybean Oil: With a strong fundamental situation, it is recommended to be overweighted in the oil sector, and consider a long - Y and short - P spread [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: With improved supply expectations and a global bumper harvest in the new season, its fundamental situation in the oil sector is relatively weak [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting intentions, and demand should be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - positions due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is cost support, but short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - Corn: With a fast selling progress in the Northeast and low port inventories, the short - term spot is firm, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in a range [1]. - Soybeans: With Brazil's harvest progress, the selling pressure of a bumper harvest is expected, and attention should be paid to Argentina's weather [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ production suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela [1]. - Fuel Oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply - demand contradiction [1]. - Asphalt: With high profit and sufficient supply of raw materials, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified [1]. - Natural Rubber: With strong cost support and an increase in mid - stream inventory, it is recommended to be long on dips [1]. - BR Rubber: After a phased correction, the cost of butadiene has strong support, and the market is expected to return to fundamental - driven [1]. - PTA: The PX market has risen rapidly, and the PTA market is expected to be tight in 2026, with high domestic operating rates [1]. - MEG: After a continuous decline, it rebounded due to supply - side news, and downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: With improved supply - demand fundamentals, inventory has decreased, and the price has rebounded [1]. - Urea: With limited upward space due to weak domestic demand and support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - PVC: With less global production in 2026, but poor fundamentals, there may be a rush for exports [1]. - Caustic Soda: With weak fundamentals and low prices, the market is expected to trade on fundamentals again [1]. - LPG: With rising import costs, inventory reduction, and high domestic PDH operating rates, the heating market is expected to start [1]. Shipping - Container Shipping on the European Route: Expected to reach a peak in mid - January, with cautious resumption of flights by airlines and pre - holiday replenishment demand [1].