烧碱现货价格继续下降

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. Although there was a rush to export before April, the export situation is expected to decline significantly after April. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. The upstream production profit has decreased due to the weak spot price of caustic soda [1][3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is weak and continues to decline. The supply - demand situation of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory piling up. The demand from downstream industries is generally low, and the export orders remain sluggish [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4801 yuan/ton (-2), the East China basis is -261 yuan/ton (-38), and the South China basis is -241 yuan/ton (-18) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4540 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4560 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2855 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit is -35 yuan/ton (+50), the production profit of PVC by calcium carbide method is -662 yuan/ton (-29), the production profit of PVC by ethylene method is -138 yuan/ton (+54), and the PVC export profit is 0.5 dollars/ton (+7.0) [1]. - Inventory and production: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 31.1 tons (-1.7), the social inventory is 56.2 tons (+1.5), the operating rate of PVC by calcium carbide method is 80.66% (+0.43%), the operating rate of PVC by ethylene method is 75.48% (-0.21%), and the overall operating rate of PVC is 79.08% (+0.23%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 92.6 tons (+1.7) [1]. Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and there was a rush to export before April. Currently, the overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream demand is declining, the inventory is piling up, and the upstream production profit has decreased [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V03 - 05 spread when it is low [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [4]. Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2005 yuan/ton (-1), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -21 yuan/ton (-71) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 635 yuan/ton (-23), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 964 yuan/ton (-72), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 519.4 yuan/ton (-71.9), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -517.58 yuan/ton (-151.87), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 503.49 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and production: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 51.21 tons (+1.70), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.90 tons (-0.18), and the operating rate of caustic soda is 86.70% (+0.10%). The operating rate of downstream industries such as alumina is 85.83% (+0.09%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.76% (-1.33%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00) [2]. Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts. The supply - demand situation is weak, with inventory piling up in Shandong. The supply is at a high level, and the demand from downstream industries is generally low [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways with a downward bias [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go short on the SH03 - 05 spread when it is high [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [5].