聚烯烃日报：市场情绪降温，供需支撑不足-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE and PP are both rated as neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment has cooled down, and supply - demand support is insufficient. The market is back to fundamental trading and may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,667 yuan/ton (-28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,482 yuan/ton (-14). LL North China spot is 6,660 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,730 yuan/ton (-120), and PP East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis is -7 yuan/ton (+28), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (-92), and PP East China basis is -72 yuan/ton (-16) [1] - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is 289.9 yuan/ton (-52.7), PP oil - based production profit is -360.1 yuan/ton (-52.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is -582.4 yuan/ton (+60.7) [1] - Imports and Exports: LL import profit is 240.1 yuan/ton (-23.6), PP import profit is -253.7 yuan/ton (+6.5), and PP export profit is -61.4 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have fallen from high levels. There is still an expectation of a decline due to oversupply. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the weak fundamentals of PE are being traded, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. Supply is expected to rise steadily, demand is in the off - season, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [2] - PP: After the macro - sentiment is digested, the futures price has corrected from a high level. The supply - side may see more maintenance, demand support may weaken, and the overall inventory level is still high. The short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the off - season demand may limit the rebound space [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: LLDPE is neutral, and PP is neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [4] - Inter - period: No strategy provided [4] - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided [4]