Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,755 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.08%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,638 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (-1.54%), and the spot basis was -121 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -73 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -902 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 79.5 tons (down 0.7 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrival in the main ports this week is high, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Domestically, the reduction of syngas - based production load is not obvious, and the overall EG production load continues to rise. There is still great pressure on inventory accumulation in January - February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas, the import pressure will ease after February as some devices are under maintenance, but the reduction in imports is slow, and the pressure in January remains high. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented in January, and the weaving and polyester loads may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. - For trading strategies, the current price is low with some buying support, but due to high downstream implicit inventory, increasing port inventory, and slow reduction in imports, the inventory accumulation pressure in January - February is large, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to conduct an inverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,755 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.08%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,638 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (-1.54%), and the spot basis was -121 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -73 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -902 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. International Price Difference No specific data analysis provided, only mentioned the "ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - As the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented in January, the weaving and polyester loads may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 79.5 tons (down 0.7 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrival in the main ports this week is 20.5 tons, and the arrival in secondary ports is 1 ton, with high overall arrivals, and inventory accumulation in the main ports is expected [1].
本周EG外轮到港计划集中
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-20 03:12