宝城期货煤焦早报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The coking coal market has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". Concerns about demand are disturbing, and coke is expected to operate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - As of the week of January 16, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons (due to the addition of a new survey sample this period, the data increase was significant). The combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The coking coal market maintains a situation of increasing supply and demand, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and Spring Festival coal mine shutdowns have already fermented. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - As of the week of January 16, the combined daily average output of coke from sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 110.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 million tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 million tons. On Sunday of last week, an explosion occurred at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, triggering concerns about downstream production cuts and increasing market negative feedback expectations. Coupled with the lack of obvious support from the coke's own fundamentals, the coke futures are suppressed to maintain low and weak operation [6].