乌干达经济更新，2025年12月：通过农业工业化培育繁荣（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Uganda's economic growth remained robust in FY25, with real GDP growth accelerating to 6.3 percent, driven by strong domestic demand and a recovery in household consumption [29][30] - The external position improved, with a narrowing current account deficit from 7.9 percent of GDP in FY24 to 6.4 percent in FY25, supported by rising export receipts, particularly from coffee and gold [30][31] - Fiscal pressures increased, with the overall fiscal deficit widening to 6.1 percent of GDP in FY25, primarily due to a 23 percent rise in government spending [31][34] - The medium-term outlook is positive, with growth expected to remain broad-based and accelerate as oil production commences, projected to start in FY27 [33][34] - Agro-industrialization is central to Uganda's development strategy, offering significant potential for job creation and economic transformation [36][37] Summary by Sections Part 1: State of the Ugandan Economy - Recent Economic Developments - Uganda's economy experienced broad-based growth in FY25, with total consumption rising by 10.3 percent and a significant increase in government consumption [29][53] - Agricultural value-added grew by 6.6 percent, contributing 24 percent to the GDP increase, supported by favorable rainfall conditions [55] - The external position strengthened, with export receipts surging and foreign exchange reserves rising to cover three months of imports [30][31] - Economic Outlook, Risks and Development Priorities - Growth is expected to remain robust in FY26 and FY27, with fiscal and external deficits projected to improve gradually as oil revenues begin to accrue [33][34] - Risks to the outlook include potential fiscal slippages, delays in oil sector development, and climate shocks affecting agricultural productivity [34] Part 2: Cultivating Prosperity Through Agro-Industrialization - Current Context for Cultivating Future Prosperity - Uganda has significant untapped agro-industrialization potential due to its abundant natural resources and favorable climate [37] - However, agricultural productivity remains low, with challenges such as weak foundations in primary production and limited access to finance and infrastructure [38] - Recommendations for Agro-Industrial Transformation - Addressing challenges requires coordinated investments and reforms to strengthen agricultural foundations, improve infrastructure, and mobilize private sector investments [39][41] - The report emphasizes the need for strategic partnerships and sustained political commitment to achieve agro-industrialization goals [41]