Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core View - The rubber market shows a shockingly weak trend, with various data in the futures and spot markets experiencing fluctuations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,610 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The trading volume was 216,355 lots, a decrease of 131,826 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 186,443 lots, a decrease of 4,496 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,500 tons to 109,890 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 4,064 lots to 39,694 lots [1] - Spread Data: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was -245 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was -895 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 40 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The RSS3 outer - disk quotation remained unchanged at 2,160 US dollars/ton, while STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 5 US dollars/ton respectively [1] - Substitutes and Spot Market: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12,100 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 10 US dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 15 US dollars/ton [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.49 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67 tons, or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.42% to 9.95 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.26% to 48.54 tons. The inbound rate and outbound rate of bonded and general trade warehouses both increased [2] Supply Situation - Enterprises adjust production schedules flexibly according to their own inventory, shipments, and orders. Some enterprises that limited production last week may increase production this week, while others may moderately reduce production due to shipment pressure. Overall, the supply side fluctuates slightly, and the shipment of some enterprises in Shandong has slowed down due to weather [4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1]
橡胶：震荡偏弱20260120
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-20 03:23