中辉农产品观点-20260120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific ratings for each variety: short - term decline for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, short - term rebound for palm oil, short - term weakness for soybean oil, short - term oscillation for rapeseed oil, oscillation adjustment for cotton, short - term rebound for red dates, and caution for callback for live pigs [1]. Core Views - Soybean Meal: After multiple rounds of negative factors are realized, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. Although the domestic spot price is resistant to decline, recent domestic reserves release and the successful China - Canada meeting led to a new low in soybean meal prices, and short - selling after continuous decline should be cautious [1][2][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a long - term increase in imports. Currently, the supply is tight, but the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see with a bullish view [1][4][6]. - Palm Oil: The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of January increased month - on - month, and the production decreased month - on - month, which supports the market. Although Indonesia's decision not to implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampens the bullish sentiment, there are still opportunities to go long at low prices, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7][9]. - Soybean Oil: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the pre - holiday stocking makes the domestic spot trading good. If the palm oil data continues to improve, there may be short - term long opportunities [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The easing of China - Canada trade relations may relieve the long - term supply pressure. Considering the current high basis, the decline space is limited, and it may oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - Cotton: The 1 - month USDA data is positive for the ICE market, and the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. The domestic market is facing a slowdown in sales, increased raw material inventory pressure, and weakening demand in the off - season. The short - term is expected to adjust weakly, and the medium - to - long - term may recover after the release of negative factors [1][11][13]. - Red Dates: With the arrival of the peak season of new product listing and consumption, the futures price fluctuation increases. The accelerated inventory reduction may drive a short - term rebound, but the overall situation is still under pressure in the context of loose supply and demand [1][14][15]. - Live Pigs: As it approaches the end of January, the pressure of increased slaughter before the Spring Festival is increasing, and the market sentiment may change. The near - month contract may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contract is also under pressure due to the slow reduction of breeding sows [1][16][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Inventory Data: As of January 16, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 772100 tons, a decrease of 30700 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 687330 tons, a decrease of 25790 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.62%, and an increase of 165860 tons from last year, an increase of 31.81%; the soybean meal inventory was 94720 tons, a decrease of 9680 tons from last week, a decrease of 9.27%, and an increase of 39050 tons from last year, an increase of 70.15% [3]. - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3195.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory Data: As of January 16, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 60000 tons, unchanged from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [6]. - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2221 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%; the national average spot price was 2388.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.79 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 3.07% [4]. Palm Oil - Inventory Data: As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 746100 tons, an increase of 10100 tons from last week, an increase of 1.37%, and an increase of 264300 tons from last year, an increase of 54.86% [9]. - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30%; the national average price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.03% [7]. Cotton - Inventory Data: As of the relevant period, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5686300 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from the previous value; the Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory was 4706300 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous value [10]. - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 14545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.31%; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.32% [10]. Red Dates - Inventory Data: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 14415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from the previous week, and 3737 tons higher than the same period [15]. - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.68%; the price of Aksu general - grade dates was 5.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Live Pigs - Inventory and Sales Data: As of the relevant period, the national sample - enterprise pig inventory was 3847750, a decrease of 8570 from the previous month, a decrease of 0.22%; the pig slaughter volume was 12330900, an increase of 450900 from the previous month, an increase of 3.80%; the breeding sow inventory was 3990000, a decrease of 45000 from the previous month, a decrease of 1.12% [16]. - Price Data: The futures price of the main contract LH2603 was 11705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.30%; the national average slaughter price was 13300 yuan/ton, an increase of 530 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 4.15% [16].