Orient Securities·2026-01-20 05:36Economic Overview - Q4 GDP growth achieved 5%, meeting the target despite a downward trend in consumption and investment[5] - December retail sales growth fell to 0.9% YoY, down from 1.3% in November, indicating persistent weakness in domestic demand[5] Consumption Insights - The cumulative retail sales growth for the year was 3.7%, with non-automotive retail sales growing at 4.4%[5] - December saw a significant drop in automotive sales growth, from over 90% in June to -1.5% by year-end, influenced by local registration policies[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative YoY decline of 3.8%, worsening from -2.6% the previous month, with real estate investment down 17.2% YoY, marking a historical low[5] - High-growth sectors include logistics and emerging technologies, with pipeline transportation investment up 36% and internet services investment up 23.8%[5] Production Performance - Industrial value-added growth in December was 5.2%, better than previous months, with high-tech industries growing 11% YoY, outperforming overall industrial growth[5] - Export delivery value for large industrial enterprises increased by 3.2% YoY in December, ending two months of negative growth[5] Future Outlook - The focus on "strong supply and weak demand" is expected to bring more domestic demand highlights in 2026, potentially boosting consumption and investment[5] - The anticipated "soft opening" for 2026 is supported by fiscal measures and local growth initiatives[5]