银泰证券研究所日报-20260120

Economic Overview - In December 2025, China's GDP growth achieved the target of 5% for the year, despite a declining trend in traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure[2] - Fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year contraction, indicating a lack of robust economic momentum[2] - Consumer demand weakened significantly in the second half of 2025, leading to a slowdown in consumption growth[2] Market Performance - On January 19, 2026, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09%[4] - The total trading volume for the day was 27,083.49 billion yuan, down by 3,178.84 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds was 1.8426%, with a change of -0.23 basis points[4] Commodity Prices - Gold futures rose by 1.77% to $4,676.7 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 6.49% to $94.28 per ounce, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions[3] A-Share Market Strategy - UBS highlighted a "slow bull" market strategy for A-shares, emphasizing the need for the stock market to replace real estate as a core wealth reserve for households[11] - The average annual financing scale for A-shares from 2015 to 2025 was 1.2 trillion yuan, with a significant gap between financing activities and investor returns[11] Future Outlook - UBS forecasts an acceleration in A-share earnings growth from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, supported by improved nominal GDP growth and policy measures[14] - Key factors for market revaluation include proactive fiscal policies, long-term capital inflows, and successful international examples from Japan and South Korea[14] Risks - Potential risks include insufficient policy support, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions between China and the U.S.[31]